Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split

4th2–21st

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Istra 1961		HNK Hajduk Split
13	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	6
4	Corners	4
21	Fouls	14
4	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	5
363	Passes	474
44%	Possession %	56%
1.59	xG	1.48

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: HNK Hajduk Split 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.71

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

HNK Hajduk Split +0.25

1.55Bet365 · fair 1.43 · qualifies at 1.47+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back HNK Hajduk Split +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.55 with Bet365 — HNK Hajduk Split starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 71% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 69%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.43. The offered 1.55 implies only 65%, so the price is 8.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Istra 1961 1.15, HNK Hajduk Split 1.71.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Istra 1961	25.0%	4.01	4.30 Dafabet	23.3%	+1.7
Match result	Draw	25.0%	4.00	3.90 Dafabet	25.6%	-0.6
Match result	HNK Hajduk Split	50.0%	2.00	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-6.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.5%	1.27	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.5%	4.65	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+1.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.5%	1.83	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-6.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.5%	2.20	2.37 Betano	42.2%	+3.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.2%	3.11	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-6.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.8%	1.47	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.5%	1.77	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.5%	2.30	2.32 Betano	43.1%	+0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

HNK Hajduk Split favoured against Istra 1961

Our model makes Istra 1961 25% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 25% and HNK Hajduk Split at 50%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Istra 1961 against 1.71 for HNK Hajduk Split — a substantial edge to HNK Hajduk Split on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 9%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 6%

This season

Season records for Istra 1961 and HNK Hajduk Split
Istra 1961		HNK Hajduk Split
13	Played	13
5-4-4	W-D-L	9-2-2
1.46	Pts / game	2.23
1.85	Goals for / game	2.08
1.46	Goals against / game	0.85
69%	Over 2.5	69%
62%	BTTS	38%
23%	Clean sheets	54%
23%	Failed to score	8%
3-2-2	Home record	6-1-0
2-2-2	Away record	3-1-2
W2	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Istra 1961 · HNK Hajduk Split

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	13.2
6.0	Shots on target	5.5
5.2	Corners	4.5
2.80	Cards	2.17
14.0	Fouls	13.7
46	Possession %	57
1.66	xG	1.43
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	9.8
5.0	Shots on target	2.8
6.2	Corners	3.2
2.00	Cards	2.83
15.4	Fouls	15.2
54	Possession %	43
1.10	xG	1.11
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Istra 1961	Metric	HNK Hajduk Split
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.56 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.41
	Big chances
7.25 (better)	Shots on target	5.60
14.75 (better)	Total shots	13.20
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	3.60
49.8	Possession %	52.6 (better)
407	Passes	435 (better)
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	14.60
1.25 (better)	Offsides	2.75
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Istra 1961 wins: 1
Draws: 2
HNK Hajduk Split wins: 3
Goals / game: 3.50
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 83%

Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split2–22026-10-26
HNK Hajduk Split v Istra 19612–22026-08-09
Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split1–32026-04-07
HNK Hajduk Split v Istra 19611–22026-01-25
Istra 1961 v HNK Hajduk Split0–32025-10-19
HNK Hajduk Split v Istra 19612–12025-08-03

Croatian HNL table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	+16	29	HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Zagreb	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	+4	20	NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	+5	19	Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	+3	19	NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	+1	18	HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5
7	NK Slaven Belupo	12	5	1	6	-7	16	NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5
8	Rudes	13	5	1	7	-11	16	Rudes won 4 of the last 5
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	-7	11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	-15	7	HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5