Inter v Parma

2nd3–016th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Inter		Parma
19	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	1
13	Fouls	9
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	2
634	Passes	433
59%	Possession %	41%
2.50	xG	0.51

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Inter 68%
Likely score: 2-0 12%
Expected goals: 2.15 – 0.78

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 3.5

2.00Bet365 · fair 1.81 · qualifies at 1.88+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back under 3.5 goals at 2.00 with Bet365 — 3 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 66% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 48%; we judge it at 55%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.81. The offered 2.00 implies only 50%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Inter 2.15, Parma 0.78.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Inter	68.3%	1.46	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-15.7
Match result	Draw	19.9%	5.03	9.50 Betfair	10.5%	+9.4
Match result	Parma	11.8%	8.51	21.00 Bet365	4.8%	+7.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.6%	1.26	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-9.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.4%	4.89	8.00 Betfair	12.5%	+7.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.1%	1.78	1.38 Betano	72.5%	-16.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	43.9%	2.28	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	+13.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.7%	2.97	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-18.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.3%	1.51	1.93 Betano	51.8%	+14.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.4%	2.07	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.6%	1.94	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-5.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Inter favoured against Parma

Our model makes Inter 68% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 20% and Parma at 12%. The goal projection is 2.15 for Inter against 0.78 for Parma — a commanding edge to Inter on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Inter is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 3-0 9%

This season

Season records for Inter and Parma
Inter		Parma
11	Played	11
9-1-1	W-D-L	2-2-7
2.55	Pts / game	0.73
2.55	Goals for / game	0.82
1.18	Goals against / game	1.55
73%	Over 2.5	64%
64%	BTTS	45%
36%	Clean sheets	18%
0%	Failed to score	45%
6-0-0	Home record	1-2-3
3-1-1	Away record	1-0-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Inter · Parma

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.1	Shots	10.8
7.0	Shots on target	3.4
6.0	Corners	3.1
1.38	Cards	1.54
11.1	Fouls	10.3
59	Possession %	38
2.57	xG	0.99
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.4	Shots	20.4
3.3	Shots on target	5.9
2.1	Corners	7.3
1.63	Cards	1.38
9.0	Fouls	11.4
41	Possession %	62
0.88	xG	2.21
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Inter	Metric	Parma
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
3.36 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.67
	Big chances
7.80 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
24.80 (better)	Total shots	7.40
	Touches in opp. box
7.80 (better)	Corners	4.80
61.8 (better)	Possession %	43.2
592 (better)	Passes	381
	Tackles
7.60 (better)	Fouls	11.60
2.40 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Inter wins: 3
Draws: 0
Parma wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Inter v Parma3–02026-10-10
Inter v Parma2–02026-05-03
Parma v Inter0–22026-01-07

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5