Independ. Rivadavia v Gimnasia L.P.

7th1–15th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Independ. Rivadavia		Gimnasia L.P.
21	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	3
8	Fouls	6
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
385	Passes	429
47%	Possession %	53%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Independ. Rivadavia 50%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.79 – 1.21

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Over 3.5

3.50BetVictor · fair 2.84 · qualifies at 3.12+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back over 3.5 goals at 3.50 with BetVictor — 4 goals or more in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 35%, which is a fair price of 2.84. The offered 3.50 implies only 29%, so the price is 23.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Independ. Rivadavia 1.79, Gimnasia L.P. 1.21.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Lost

Free pick

Gimnasia L.P.

4.60Betano · fair 3.98 · qualifies at 4.30+ · 1.07u

Why this price?

Back Gimnasia L.P. to win at 4.60 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 25%, which is a fair price of 3.99. The offered 4.60 implies only 22%, so the price is 15.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.07 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Independ. Rivadavia 1.79, Gimnasia L.P. 1.21.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Independ. Rivadavia	50.4%	1.98	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+4.5
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	3.30 Betano	30.3%	-5.8
Match result	Gimnasia L.P.	25.1%	3.98	4.50 Betano	22.2%	+2.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.7%	1.24	1.44 Betano	69.4%	+11.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.3%	5.18	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-14.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.6%	1.74	2.30 Betano	43.5%	+14.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.4%	2.36	1.65 Bet365	60.6%	-18.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.2%	2.84	4.60 BetVictor	21.7%	+13.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.8%	1.54	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-15.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.0%	1.69	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+9.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.0%	2.44	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-10.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Independ. Rivadavia favoured against Gimnasia L.P.

Our model makes Independ. Rivadavia 50% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 25% and Gimnasia L.P. at 25%. The goal projection is 1.79 for Independ. Rivadavia against 1.21 for Gimnasia L.P. — a substantial edge to Independ. Rivadavia on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Independ. Rivadavia and Gimnasia L.P.
Independ. Rivadavia		Gimnasia L.P.
33	Played	34
16-9-8	W-D-L	18-6-10
1.73	Pts / game	1.76
1.55	Goals for / game	1.32
1.24	Goals against / game	1.21
55%	Over 2.5	53%
67%	BTTS	56%
21%	Clean sheets	26%
21%	Failed to score	21%
11-3-3	Home record	9-3-4
5-6-5	Away record	9-3-6
D1	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Independ. Rivadavia · Gimnasia L.P.

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	14.0
3.9	Shots on target	4.7
4.0	Corners	4.2
2.71	Cards	2.00
11.1	Fouls	9.0
42	Possession %	50
0.72	xG	1.37
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.7	Shots	15.7
4.6	Shots on target	3.8
6.0	Corners	6.5
3.29	Cards	4.00
10.3	Fouls	15.0
58	Possession %	51
1.37	xG	1.28
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Independ. Rivadavia	Metric	Gimnasia L.P.
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.60	Goals conceded	1.60
2.27 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.94
	Big chances
7.25 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
14.25 (better)	Total shots	14.20
	Touches in opp. box
2.50	Corners	4.40 (better)
42.8	Possession %	45.8 (better)
334	Passes	361 (better)
	Tackles
13.75	Fouls	11.20 (better)
4.75	Offsides	3.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Independ. Rivadavia wins: 1
Draws: 1
Gimnasia L.P. wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

Independ. Rivadavia v Gimnasia L.P.1–12026-10-03
Gimnasia L.P. v Independ. Rivadavia2–32026-03-15

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rosario Central	35	19	9	7	+19	66	Rosario Central won 5 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	35	18	11	6	+12	65	Argentinos JRS won 3 of the last 5
3	Boca Juniors	33	17	13	3	+23	64	Boca Juniors won 4 of the last 5
4	River Plate	36	19	5	12	+19	62	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
5	Gimnasia L.P.	34	18	6	10	+4	60	Gimnasia L.P. won 4 of the last 5
6	Belgrano Cordoba	36	16	11	9	+10	59	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
7	Independ. Rivadavia	33	16	9	8	+10	57	Independ. Rivadavia won 1 of the last 5
8	Velez Sarsfield	33	14	14	5	+13	56	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	32	16	7	9	+11	55	Instituto Cordoba won 2 of the last 5
10	Lanus	33	13	11	9	+8	50	Lanus won 2 of the last 5
11	Estudiantes L.P.	33	13	8	12	+10	47	Estudiantes L.P. won 0 of the last 5
12	Barracas Central	32	12	11	9	+4	47	Barracas Central won 3 of the last 5
13	Defensa Y Justicia	32	12	11	9	+3	47	Defensa Y Justicia won 2 of the last 5
14	Independiente	33	12	11	10	+1	47	Independiente won 1 of the last 5
15	Huracan	34	11	13	10	+2	46	Huracan won 1 of the last 5
16	Union Santa Fe	34	12	9	13	+3	45	Union Santa Fe won 2 of the last 5
17	San Lorenzo	33	10	12	11	-7	42	San Lorenzo won 2 of the last 5
18	Gimnasia M.	32	11	8	13	-7	41	Gimnasia M. won 1 of the last 5
19	Racing Club	34	10	10	14	-5	40	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
20	Sarmiento Junin	32	12	4	16	-8	40	Sarmiento Junin won 0 of the last 5
21	Tigre	32	9	12	11	+3	39	Tigre won 2 of the last 5
22	Talleres Cordoba	33	10	9	14	-3	39	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	32	8	14	10	-9	38	Newells Old Boys won 1 of the last 5
24	Platense	32	8	12	12	-7	36	Platense won 3 of the last 5
25	Banfield	32	8	9	15	-9	33	Banfield won 1 of the last 5
26	Atletico Tucuman	32	7	11	14	-6	32	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	32	6	9	17	-24	27	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	3	14	15	-15	23	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	32	3	10	19	-23	19	Aldosivi won 1 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	3	5	24	-32	14	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 1 of the last 5