Incheon United won 3 of the last 5LWWDW6th3–1Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5DDLLL7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Incheon United
Jeju United FC
13
Shots
5
7
Shots on target
2
7
Corners
0
—
Fouls
—
3
Yellow cards
5
0
Red cards
1
0
Offsides
0
—
Passes
—
73%
Possession %
27%
—
xG
—
35%
31%
34%
1 · Incheon UnitedXJeju United FC · 2
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
17%
Both score
44%
Model pick
Incheon United 35%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.08
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Incheon United
34.8%
2.87
2.31 Dafabet
43.3%
-8.5
Match result
Jeju United FC
34.4%
2.91
3.30 Dafabet
30.3%
+4.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
64.3%
1.55
1.40 Betfair
71.4%
-7.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
35.7%
2.80
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+2.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
36.7%
2.72
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-8.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
63.3%
1.58
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+3.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
17.4%
5.76
4.33 Betfair
23.1%
-5.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
82.6%
1.21
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
+2.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
44.4%
2.25
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-8.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
55.6%
1.80
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+2.2
Match result
Draw
30.8%
3.25
3.30 Dafabet
30.3%
+0.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Incheon United v Jeju United FC: too close to call
Our model makes Incheon United 35% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 31% and Jeju United FC at 34%. The goal projection is 1.09 for Incheon United against 1.08 for Jeju United FC — almost nothing to Incheon United on expected output. A combined 2.16 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 14%
0-0 12%
1-0 12%
0-1 12%
2-1 7%
This season
Season records for Incheon United and Jeju United FC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Incheon United
Metric
Jeju United FC
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
0.80
Goals conceded
0.80
1.08
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
4.00 (better)
Shots on target
3.60
10.60
Total shots
14.40 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.40 (better)
Corners
4.00
52.6 (better)
Possession %
51.8
491 (better)
Passes
403
—
Tackles
—
9.00 (better)
Fouls
10.40
1.20 (better)
Offsides
1.40
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.20 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Incheon United v 
Jeju United FC