IFK Goteborg v 
Djurgardens IF
Match statistics
| IFK Goteborg | Djurgardens IF | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 433 | Passes | 464 |
| 48% | Possession % | 52% |
| 0.77 | xG | 0.83 |
- Over 1.5
- 80%
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Djurgardens IF 58%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.04 – 1.93
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5IFK Goteborg -0.75
Why this price?
Back IFK Goteborg -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 3.80 with Bet365 — IFK Goteborg must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 14% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 28%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.53. The offered 3.80 implies only 26%, so the price is 7.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.67 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.04, Djurgardens IF 1.93.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -4.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +0.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -4.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | -0.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | -8.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.45 BetVictor | 40.8% | +3.3 |
| Match result | IFK Goteborg | 19.5% | 5.12 | 3.70 Bet365 | 27.0% | -7.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.9% | 4.36 | 3.85 Betano | 26.0% | -3.0 |
| Match result | Djurgardens IF | 57.5% | 1.74 | 2.06 Dafabet | 48.5% | +9.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -3.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.8% | 5.04 | 4.80 Betfair | 20.8% | -1.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Djurgardens IF favoured against IFK Goteborg
Our model makes IFK Goteborg 20% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 23% and Djurgardens IF at 58%. The goal projection is 1.04 for IFK Goteborg against 1.93 for Djurgardens IF — a substantial edge to Djurgardens IF on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-2 10%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-3 6%
This season
| IFK Goteborg | Djurgardens IF | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Played | 28 |
| 10-9-9 | W-D-L | 16-4-8 |
| 1.39 | Pts / game | 1.86 |
| 1.29 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 1.64 | Goals against / game | 0.96 |
| 46% | Over 2.5 | 57% |
| 57% | BTTS | 46% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 46% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 6-5-3 | Home record | 7-2-5 |
| 4-4-6 | Away record | 9-2-3 |
| D1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. IFK Goteborg · Djurgardens IF
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.0 | Shots | 11.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.14 |
| 14.8 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.18 | xG | 1.47 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 12.7 | Shots | 10.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 12.2 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 53 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.35 | xG | 0.78 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| IFK Goteborg | Metric | Djurgardens IF |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| 1.50 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.50 (better) | Shots on target | 3.75 |
| 12.50 (better) | Total shots | 8.75 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.50 (better) | Corners | 2.50 |
| 48.0 (better) | Possession % | 46.8 |
| 435 | Passes | 487 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.25 | Fouls | 9.75 (better) |
| 1.67 (better) | Offsides | 2.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- IFK Goteborg wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Djurgardens IF wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens IF1–12026-10-28
- Djurgardens IF v IFK Goteborg6–02026-05-04
- Djurgardens IF v IFK Goteborg0–02025-11-02
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby FF | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | +37 | 58 | Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Sirius | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | +23 | 58 | Sirius won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | +29 | 52 | Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | +17 | 49 | BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | +11 | 46 | IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | +2 | 45 | Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | +6 | 41 | Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 41 | AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Gais | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | +8 | 40 | Gais won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | IFK Goteborg | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -10 | 39 | IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -5 | 35 | IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -13 | 28 | Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -18 | 26 | Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -25 | 20 | Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 20 | Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -32 | 20 | Halmstad won 2 of the last 5 |