IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5LWDDD5th2–1Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5DLLDW15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
IF Elfsborg
Orgryte IS
15
Shots
9
5
Shots on target
3
12
Corners
1
11
Fouls
12
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
709
Passes
296
70%
Possession %
30%
1.89
xG
0.71
58%
22%
20%
1 · IF ElfsborgXOrgryte IS · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
59%
Model pick
IF Elfsborg 58%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.06 – 1.13
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.1%
1.20
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-1.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.9%
5.92
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-1.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.6%
1.62
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-2.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.4%
2.61
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
+1.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.3%
2.54
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-2.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.7%
1.65
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-1.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.4%
1.68
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+2.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.6%
2.46
2.20 William Hill
45.5%
-4.9
Match result
IF Elfsborg
58.3%
1.72
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-13.2
Match result
Draw
21.9%
4.56
5.20 Dafabet
19.2%
+2.7
Match result
Orgryte IS
19.8%
5.06
7.60 Dafabet
13.2%
+6.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
IF Elfsborg favoured against Orgryte IS
Our model makes IF Elfsborg 58% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 22% and Orgryte IS at 20%. The goal projection is 2.06 for IF Elfsborg against 1.13 for Orgryte IS — a commanding edge to IF Elfsborg on expected output. A combined 3.18 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
IF Elfsborg
Metric
Orgryte IS
1.60
Goals scored
1.60
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.60
1.78 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.27
—
Big chances *
—
4.50 (better)
Shots on target
2.80
15.25 (better)
Total shots
9.40
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.75 (better)
Corners
3.40
47.8 (better)
Possession %
41.4
483 (better)
Passes
401
—
Tackles
—
9.50 (better)
Fouls
10.80
1.75 (better)
Offsides
1.80
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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IF Elfsborg v 
Orgryte IS