IF Elfsborg v 
Malmo FF
Match statistics
| IF Elfsborg | Malmo FF | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 434 | Passes | 550 |
| 44% | Possession % | 56% |
| 0.92 | xG | 0.67 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- IF Elfsborg 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.53 – 1.25
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5IF Elfsborg -0.5
Why this price?
Back IF Elfsborg -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.98 with BetVictor — IF Elfsborg must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 62%; we judge it at 54%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.83. The offered 1.98 implies only 51%, so the price is 7.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: IF Elfsborg 1.53, Malmo FF 1.25.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | IF Elfsborg | 43.2% | 2.31 | 2.08 Dafabet | 48.1% | -4.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.80 Bet365 | 26.3% | -0.0 |
| Match result | Malmo FF | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.35 Dafabet | 29.9% | +0.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | 1.23 Betano | 81.3% | -4.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.9% | 4.36 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | -0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | -4.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 2.15 Bet365 | 46.5% | +1.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 2.88 BetVictor | 34.7% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.7% | 1.43 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -5.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.6% | 2.29 | 2.30 William Hill | 43.5% | +0.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
IF Elfsborg favoured against Malmo FF
Our model makes IF Elfsborg 43% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 26% and Malmo FF at 30%. The goal projection is 1.53 for IF Elfsborg against 1.25 for Malmo FF — a clear edge to IF Elfsborg on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| IF Elfsborg | Malmo FF | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Played | 28 |
| 12-10-6 | W-D-L | 12-5-11 |
| 1.64 | Pts / game | 1.46 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.11 | Goals against / game | 1.29 |
| 54% | Over 2.5 | 57% |
| 64% | BTTS | 50% |
| 32% | Clean sheets | 39% |
| 7% | Failed to score | 21% |
| 8-4-2 | Home record | 5-1-8 |
| 4-6-4 | Away record | 7-4-3 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. IF Elfsborg · Malmo FF
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.3 | Shots | 13.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 7.9 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.43 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 8.9 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 50 | Possession % | 57 |
| 1.76 | xG | 1.08 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 11.7 | Shots | 17.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.57 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 9.9 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 43 |
| 0.83 | xG | 1.40 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| IF Elfsborg | Metric | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 2.10 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.21 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 7.00 (better) |
| 13.75 | Total shots | 21.50 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.50 | Corners | 6.75 (better) |
| 50.0 | Possession % | 58.3 (better) |
| 525 | Passes | 541 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.75 (better) | Fouls | 14.25 |
| 1.25 (better) | Offsides | 1.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.50 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- IF Elfsborg wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Malmo FF wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF0–02026-10-23
- Malmo FF v IF Elfsborg1–22026-07-26
- IF Elfsborg v Malmo FF2–22025-09-14
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby FF | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | +37 | 58 | Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Sirius | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | +23 | 58 | Sirius won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | +29 | 52 | Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | +17 | 49 | BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | +11 | 46 | IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | +2 | 45 | Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | +6 | 41 | Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 41 | AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Gais | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | +8 | 40 | Gais won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | IFK Goteborg | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | -10 | 39 | IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -5 | 35 | IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -13 | 28 | Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -18 | 26 | Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -25 | 20 | Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 20 | Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | -32 | 20 | Halmstad won 2 of the last 5 |