Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5WLLDL11th5–0Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5LWDWD5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Hradec Králové
Sigma Olomouc
23
Shots
6
11
Shots on target
1
9
Corners
2
10
Fouls
6
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
1
2
Offsides
2
511
Passes
406
64%
Possession %
36%
3.89
xG
0.34
39%
28%
33%
1 · Hradec KrálovéXSigma Olomouc · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Hradec Králové 39%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.19
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Hradec Králové
38.6%
2.59
2.80 BetVictor
35.7%
+2.9
Match result
Draw
28.3%
3.53
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
-0.3
Match result
Sigma Olomouc
33.1%
3.02
2.95 Betano
33.9%
-0.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.7%
1.40
1.29 Betano
77.5%
-5.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
28.3%
3.53
3.85 Betano
26.0%
+2.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
45.3%
2.21
1.88 Betano
53.2%
-7.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
54.7%
1.83
2.00 Betano
50.0%
+4.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
24.0%
4.17
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-6.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
76.0%
1.32
1.38 Betano
72.5%
+3.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
51.2%
1.95
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-7.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
48.8%
2.05
2.25 William Hill
44.4%
+4.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hradec Králové v Sigma Olomouc: too close to call
Our model makes Hradec Králové 39% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Sigma Olomouc at 33%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Hradec Králové against 1.19 for Sigma Olomouc — a slight edge to Hradec Králové on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
0-1 9%
0-0 9%
2-1 8%
This season
Season records for Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hradec Králové
Metric
Sigma Olomouc
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.40
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
1.54 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.04
—
Big chances *
—
3.00
Shots on target
4.25 (better)
11.67
Total shots
14.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.33
Corners
4.25 (better)
46.3
Possession %
47.3 (better)
415
Passes
426 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.33
Fouls
7.25 (better)
0.67 (better)
Offsides
1.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.67
Yellow cards
0.75 (better)
0.33 (better)
Red cards
0.67
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Hradec Králové v 
Sigma Olomouc