Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5WLLDL11th1–2FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5DLWLW7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Hradec Králové
FK Jablonec
17
Shots
18
4
Shots on target
7
2
Corners
9
11
Fouls
6
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
478
Passes
431
52%
Possession %
48%
2.34
xG
2.03
39%
29%
32%
1 · Hradec KrálovéXFK Jablonec · 2
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
22%
Both score
49%
Model pick
Hradec Králové 39%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.12
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Hradec Králové
39.2%
2.55
2.43 Dafabet
41.2%
-2.0
Match result
Draw
29.0%
3.45
3.30 BetVictor
30.3%
-1.3
Match result
FK Jablonec
31.9%
3.14
3.15 Dafabet
31.7%
+0.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
69.5%
1.44
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-5.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
30.5%
3.28
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+1.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
42.7%
2.34
2.02 Betano
49.5%
-6.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
57.3%
1.74
—
—
—
Total goals
Over 3.5
21.8%
4.58
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-6.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
78.2%
1.28
1.32 Betano
75.8%
+2.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.0%
2.04
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-3.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
51.0%
1.96
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+3.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hradec Králové favoured against FK Jablonec
Our model makes Hradec Králové 39% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 29% and FK Jablonec at 32%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Hradec Králové against 1.12 for FK Jablonec — a slight edge to Hradec Králové on expected output. A combined 2.39 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hradec Králové
Metric
FK Jablonec
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.60
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.36 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.10
—
Big chances *
—
3.00
Shots on target
4.50 (better)
10.50
Total shots
15.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00
Corners
4.75 (better)
60.7 (better)
Possession %
51.8
336
Passes
440 (better)
—
Tackles
—
6.50 (better)
Fouls
12.75
3.00
Offsides
2.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.50
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Hradec Králové v 
FK Jablonec