Predicted Edge

Hortaleza v Sevilla

Hortaleza won 1 of the last 30–3Sevilla won 1 of the last 56th
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Sevilla 44%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.64

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultHortaleza31.1%3.2161.00 Betfair1.6%+29.5
Match resultDraw25.2%3.9729.00 Betfair3.4%+21.7
Match resultSevilla43.7%2.291.03 William Hill97.1%-53.4
Total goalsOver 1.580.6%1.241.01 Betfair99.0%-18.4
Total goalsUnder 1.519.4%5.1517.00 Betfair5.9%+13.5
Total goalsOver 2.557.6%1.741.11 Bet36590.1%-32.5
Total goalsUnder 2.542.4%2.367.00 Betfair14.3%+28.1
Total goalsOver 3.535.2%2.841.29 BetVictor77.5%-42.3
Total goalsUnder 3.564.8%1.543.70 Betfair27.0%+37.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes60.4%1.663.50 BetVictor28.6%+31.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No39.6%2.521.29 William Hill77.5%-37.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sevilla favoured against Hortaleza

Our model makes Hortaleza 31% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and Sevilla at 44%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Hortaleza against 1.64 for Sevilla — a clear edge to Sevilla on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
0-1 8%
2-1 8%
0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Hortaleza and Sevilla
Hortaleza Sevilla
3Played12
1-0-2W-D-L5-3-4
1.00Pts / game1.50
1.00Goals for / game1.42
2.00Goals against / game1.58
67%Over 2.558%
33%BTTS67%
33%Clean sheets33%
33%Failed to score8%
1-0-1Home record3-1-2
0-0-1Away record2-2-2
L2StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hortaleza · Sevilla

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots12.7
—Shots on target4.7
—Corners3.3
—Cards2.76
—Fouls14.3
—Possession %45
—xG1.15
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots13.3
—Shots on target5.0
—Corners3.3
—Cards1.88
—Fouls12.6
—Possession %55
—xG1.57
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (2 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
HortalezaMetricSevilla
2.00 (better)Goals scored1.40
1.50 (better)Goals conceded2.60
Expected goals (xG)1.02
Big chances
Shots on target4.75
Total shots11.75
Touches in opp. box
Corners2.25
Possession %39.0
Passes364
Tackles
Fouls14.25
Offsides2.50
Throw-ins
Yellow cards3.25
Red cards0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Hortaleza wins
0
Draws
0
Sevilla wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%