Holstein Kiel won 1 of the last 5LLWDL18th1–1aet, 4–3 pens1899 Hoffenheim won 3 of the last 5WLWWL9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Holstein Kiel
1899 Hoffenheim
16
Shots
13
5
Shots on target
4
6
Corners
10
19
Fouls
17
3
Yellow cards
5
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
5
484
Passes
615
44%
Possession %
56%
1.11
xG
0.86
21%
23%
56%
1 · Holstein KielX1899 Hoffenheim · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
59%
Model pick
1899 Hoffenheim 56%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.98
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Holstein Kiel
21.1%
4.73
6.25 Bet365
16.0%
+5.1
Match result
Draw
22.6%
4.42
5.10 Betano
19.6%
+3.0
Match result
1899 Hoffenheim
56.2%
1.78
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-8.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.5%
1.21
1.11 Betano
90.1%
-7.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.5%
5.71
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+5.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
60.6%
1.65
1.36 Bet365
73.5%
-13.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
39.4%
2.54
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+10.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
38.2%
2.62
1.90 Betano
52.6%
-14.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
61.8%
1.62
2.00 Betano
50.0%
+11.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.4%
1.68
1.50 Betfair
66.7%
-7.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.6%
2.46
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
+3.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
1899 Hoffenheim favoured against Holstein Kiel
Our model makes Holstein Kiel 21% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 23% and 1899 Hoffenheim at 56%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Holstein Kiel against 1.98 for 1899 Hoffenheim — a substantial edge to 1899 Hoffenheim on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 10%
0-2 9%
0-1 8%
1-3 7%
This season
Season records for Holstein Kiel and 1899 Hoffenheim
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Holstein Kiel
Metric
1899 Hoffenheim
0.80
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.40
1.15
Expected goals (xG)
1.37 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
2.25
Shots on target
4.40 (better)
12.00
Total shots
17.60 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.50
Corners
6.60 (better)
53.8
Possession %
60.4 (better)
459
Passes
528 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.50 (better)
Fouls
15.80
1.25 (better)
Offsides
2.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.75 (better)
Yellow cards
2.80
1.00
Red cards
0.33 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Holstein Kiel v 
1899 Hoffenheim