Hoek v Sparta Nijkerk

4–2

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Hoek		Sparta Nijkerk
24	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	4
8	Corners	0
12	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	4
—	Red cards	—
4	Offsides	1
497	Passes	372
58%	Possession %	42%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Sparta Nijkerk 54%
Likely score: 1-2 9%
Expected goals: 1.49 – 2.25

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Hoek	24.8%	4.04	1.54 Dafabet	64.9%	-40.2
Match result	Draw	20.9%	4.79	4.60 Betfair	21.7%	-0.8
Match result	Sparta Nijkerk	54.3%	1.84	6.25 Bet365	16.0%	+38.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.2%	1.12	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.8%	9.22	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	72.2%	1.39	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+5.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	27.9%	3.59	2.60 Betfair	38.5%	-10.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	51.4%	1.94	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+6.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	48.6%	2.06	1.67 Betfair	59.9%	-11.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.7%	1.43	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+9.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.3%	3.30	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-13.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sparta Nijkerk favoured against Hoek

Our model makes Hoek 25% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 21% and Sparta Nijkerk at 54%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Hoek against 2.25 for Sparta Nijkerk — a substantial edge to Sparta Nijkerk on expected output. A combined 3.74 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 9%; 1-1 8%; 1-3 7%; 2-2 7%; 0-2 6%

This season

Season records for Hoek and Sparta Nijkerk
Hoek		Sparta Nijkerk
1	Played	3
1-0-0	W-D-L	2-0-1
3.00	Pts / game	2.00
4.00	Goals for / game	2.33
2.00	Goals against / game	1.67
100%	Over 2.5	67%
100%	BTTS	67%
0%	Clean sheets	33%
0%	Failed to score	0%
1-0-0	Home record	2-0-0
0-0-0	Away record	0-0-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hoek · Sparta Nijkerk

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
24.0	Shots	8.0
9.0	Shots on target	4.0
8.0	Corners	0.0
2.00	Cards	4.00
12.0	Fouls	13.0
58	Possession %	42
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.0	Shots	24.0
4.0	Shots on target	9.0
0.0	Corners	8.0
4.00	Cards	2.00
13.0	Fouls	12.0
42	Possession %	58
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hoek	Metric	Sparta Nijkerk
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.60
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Hoek wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sparta Nijkerk wins: 0
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Hoek v Sparta Nijkerk4–22026-10-29