HNK Rijeka v NK Varazdin

6th1–15th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
HNK Rijeka		NK Varazdin
17	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	2
12	Corners	0
12	Fouls	12
4	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
2	Offsides	0
647	Passes	296
69%	Possession %	31%
1.24	xG	0.89

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: HNK Rijeka 41%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.01

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	HNK Rijeka	41.2%	2.43	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-15.0
Match result	Draw	29.7%	3.37	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	+3.4
Match result	NK Varazdin	29.1%	3.43	4.50 Dafabet	22.2%	+6.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.6%	1.50	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-11.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.4%	3.00	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+7.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.3%	2.54	1.87 Betano	53.5%	-14.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.7%	1.65	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.2%	5.20	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-11.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.8%	1.24	1.36 Betano	73.5%	+7.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.0%	2.17	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.0%	1.85	2.00 BetVictor	50.0%	+4.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

HNK Rijeka favoured against NK Varazdin

Our model makes HNK Rijeka 41% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 30% and NK Varazdin at 29%. The goal projection is 1.25 for HNK Rijeka against 1.01 for NK Varazdin — a slight edge to HNK Rijeka on expected output. A combined 2.26 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for HNK Rijeka and NK Varazdin
HNK Rijeka		NK Varazdin
12	Played	13
5-3-4	W-D-L	5-4-4
1.50	Pts / game	1.46
1.58	Goals for / game	1.31
1.50	Goals against / game	1.08
67%	Over 2.5	46%
75%	BTTS	54%
17%	Clean sheets	38%
17%	Failed to score	23%
4-1-0	Home record	3-2-2
1-2-4	Away record	2-2-2
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. HNK Rijeka · NK Varazdin

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	9.4
3.8	Shots on target	2.2
5.2	Corners	2.4
2.40	Cards	2.40
12.5	Fouls	10.2
56	Possession %	41
1.22	xG	1.14
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	16.0
5.2	Shots on target	4.6
3.0	Corners	7.2
2.23	Cards	3.00
10.7	Fouls	14.2
44	Possession %	59
1.45	xG	1.32
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
HNK Rijeka	Metric	NK Varazdin
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.40	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.56 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.18
	Big chances
4.33 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
10.67	Total shots	13.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.67	Corners	4.50 (better)
56.7 (better)	Possession %	45.8
520 (better)	Passes	387
	Tackles
11.67 (better)	Fouls	12.75
1.33	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.67	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

HNK Rijeka wins: 1
Draws: 1
NK Varazdin wins: 4
Goals / game: 2.17
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 50%

Croatian HNL table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	9	2	2	+16	29	HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Zagreb	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5
3	NK Osijek	13	6	2	5	+4	20	NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5
4	Istra 1961	13	5	4	4	+5	19	Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5
5	NK Varazdin	13	5	4	4	+3	19	NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5
6	HNK Rijeka	12	5	3	4	+1	18	HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5
7	NK Slaven Belupo	12	5	1	6	-7	16	NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5
8	Rudes	13	5	1	7	-11	16	Rudes won 4 of the last 5
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	3	2	8	-7	11	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5
10	HNK Gorica	13	1	4	8	-15	7	HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5