HNK Hajduk Split won 3 of the last 5WDWWL1st1–0NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5DLLWD5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Varazdin
18
Shots
7
6
Shots on target
1
5
Corners
3
17
Fouls
11
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
527
Passes
293
64%
Possession %
36%
1.43
xG
1.25
52%
25%
23%
1 · HNK Hajduk SplitXNK Varazdin · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
56%
Model pick
HNK Hajduk Split 52%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.11
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
HNK Hajduk Split
52.1%
1.92
1.83 Dafabet
54.6%
-2.6
Match result
Draw
24.7%
4.05
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-3.1
Match result
NK Varazdin
23.2%
4.31
5.50 Betano
18.2%
+5.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.27
1.26 Betano
79.4%
-0.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.0%
4.76
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
-4.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.1%
1.81
1.85 Bet365
54.1%
+1.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.9%
2.23
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-5.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.7%
3.05
3.10 BetVictor
32.3%
+0.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.3%
1.49
1.39 Betano
71.9%
-4.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
56.4%
1.77
1.75 William Hill
57.1%
-0.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
43.6%
2.30
2.05 BetVictor
48.8%
-5.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
HNK Hajduk Split favoured against NK Varazdin
Our model makes HNK Hajduk Split 52% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 25% and NK Varazdin at 23%. The goal projection is 1.77 for HNK Hajduk Split against 1.11 for NK Varazdin — a substantial edge to HNK Hajduk Split on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 10%
1-0 9%
2-0 9%
0-0 6%
This season
Season records for HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
HNK Hajduk Split
Metric
NK Varazdin
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
0.80
Goals conceded
0.40 (better)
1.35 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.27
—
Big chances *
—
4.25
Shots on target
4.67 (better)
12.50
Total shots
18.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00
Corners
6.00 (better)
61.0 (better)
Possession %
54.3
525 (better)
Passes
467
—
Tackles
—
11.25 (better)
Fouls
13.67
1.00 (better)
Offsides
1.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.67
Yellow cards
1.67 (better)
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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HNK Hajduk Split v 
NK Varazdin