HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5WWDWW1st5–0HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5LLDDL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Gorica
13
Shots
4
7
Shots on target
1
4
Corners
5
16
Fouls
11
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
498
Passes
346
59%
Possession %
41%
2.13
xG
0.31
65%
22%
13%
1 · HNK Hajduk SplitXHNK Gorica · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
45%
Model pick
HNK Hajduk Split 65%
Likely score
1-0 13%
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.75
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
HNK Hajduk Split
64.7%
1.55
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-9.9
Match result
Draw
22.1%
4.53
5.40 Dafabet
18.5%
+3.5
Match result
HNK Gorica
13.3%
7.55
9.20 Dafabet
10.9%
+2.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.1%
1.33
1.22 Bet365
82.0%
-6.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.9%
4.01
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
+2.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.9%
2.00
1.70 Betano
58.8%
-8.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.1%
2.00
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+4.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.9%
3.58
2.75 Bet365
36.4%
-8.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.1%
1.39
1.47 Betfair
68.0%
+4.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
45.4%
2.20
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-2.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
54.6%
1.83
1.75 William Hill
57.1%
-2.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
HNK Hajduk Split favoured against HNK Gorica
Our model makes HNK Hajduk Split 65% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 22% and HNK Gorica at 13%. The goal projection is 1.92 for HNK Hajduk Split against 0.75 for HNK Gorica — a commanding edge to HNK Hajduk Split on expected output. A combined 2.67 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. HNK Hajduk Split is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-0 13%
2-0 13%
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
3-0 8%
This season
Season records for HNK Hajduk Split and HNK Gorica
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
HNK Hajduk Split
Metric
HNK Gorica
1.20
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.41 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.81
—
Big chances *
—
5.60 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
13.20 (better)
Total shots
11.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.60
Corners
5.33 (better)
52.6 (better)
Possession %
51.7
435 (better)
Passes
407
—
Tackles
—
14.60
Fouls
10.67 (better)
2.75
Offsides
2.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.67 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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HNK Hajduk Split v 
HNK Gorica