HNK Gorica v 
NK Slaven Belupo
Match statistics
| HNK Gorica | NK Slaven Belupo | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 370 | Passes | 279 |
| 57% | Possession % | 43% |
| 1.19 | xG | 3.85 |
- Over 1.5
- 74%
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Over 3.5
- 26%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- HNK Gorica 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.40 – 1.20
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5HNK Gorica -0.5
Why this price?
Back HNK Gorica -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Betano — HNK Gorica must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.04. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: HNK Gorica 1.40, NK Slaven Belupo 1.20.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | HNK Gorica | 40.8% | 2.45 | 2.30 William Hill | 43.5% | -2.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.50 Dafabet | 28.6% | -1.1 |
| Match result | NK Slaven Belupo | 31.7% | 3.16 | 3.10 William Hill | 32.3% | -0.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73.8% | 1.35 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | -4.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.80 BetVictor | 26.3% | -0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.10 BetVictor | 32.3% | -5.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.37 Betano | 73.0% | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -6.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 46.8% | 2.14 | 2.25 Betfair | 44.4% | +2.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | 1.85 Bet365 | 54.1% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | 2.00 Betfair | 50.0% | +1.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
HNK Gorica favoured against NK Slaven Belupo
Our model makes HNK Gorica 41% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 28% and NK Slaven Belupo at 32%. The goal projection is 1.40 for HNK Gorica against 1.20 for NK Slaven Belupo — a slight edge to HNK Gorica on expected output. A combined 2.60 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| HNK Gorica | NK Slaven Belupo | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 12 |
| 1-4-8 | W-D-L | 5-1-6 |
| 0.54 | Pts / game | 1.33 |
| 0.77 | Goals for / game | 1.58 |
| 1.92 | Goals against / game | 2.17 |
| 46% | Over 2.5 | 75% |
| 46% | BTTS | 58% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 46% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 0-3-4 | Home record | 3-0-3 |
| 1-1-4 | Away record | 2-1-3 |
| L2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. HNK Gorica · NK Slaven Belupo
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.2 | Shots | 12.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 7.4 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 1.40 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 51 | Possession % | 45 |
| 0.95 | xG | 1.86 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 16.0 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.80 | Cards | 1.40 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 49 | Possession % | 55 |
| 2.04 | xG | 1.95 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| HNK Gorica | Metric | NK Slaven Belupo |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 1.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 4.75 (better) |
| 11.33 | Total shots | 11.50 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.67 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 51.0 (better) | Possession % | 45.0 |
| 412 (better) | Passes | 383 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 11.50 (better) |
| 2.33 | Offsides | 1.67 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.33 (better) | Yellow cards | 1.67 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- HNK Gorica wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- NK Slaven Belupo wins
- 4
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- HNK Gorica v NK Slaven Belupo3–52026-11-07
- NK Slaven Belupo v HNK Gorica2–02026-08-22
- NK Slaven Belupo v HNK Gorica1–02026-05-10
- HNK Gorica v NK Slaven Belupo2–22026-03-07
- NK Slaven Belupo v HNK Gorica2–12025-12-05
- HNK Gorica v NK Slaven Belupo2–12025-09-21
Croatian HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +16 | 29 | HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 22 | Dinamo Zagreb won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 20 | NK Osijek won 1 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +5 | 19 | Istra 1961 won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 19 | NK Varazdin won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 18 | HNK Rijeka won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 16 | NK Slaven Belupo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Rudes | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 16 | Rudes won 4 of the last 5 |
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 11 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 7 | HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5 |