HNK Gorica won 0 of the last 5LLDDL10th0–0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb won 1 of the last 5LLDWL9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
HNK Gorica
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
14
Shots
14
4
Shots on target
1
10
Corners
6
14
Fouls
12
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
0
459
Passes
394
54%
Possession %
46%
1.39
xG
0.86
39%
29%
32%
1 · HNK GoricaXNK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
21%
Both score
48%
Model pick
HNK Gorica 39%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.09
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
HNK Gorica
38.9%
2.57
2.46 Dafabet
40.7%
-1.7
Match result
Draw
29.4%
3.40
3.35 Dafabet
29.9%
-0.5
Match result
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
31.7%
3.15
2.95 Betano
33.9%
-2.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
68.3%
1.47
1.30 Betano
76.9%
-8.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
31.7%
3.15
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
+3.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
41.2%
2.43
1.95 Bet365
51.3%
-10.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
58.8%
1.70
1.87 Betano
53.5%
+5.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
20.7%
4.83
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-8.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
79.3%
1.26
1.34 Betano
74.6%
+4.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
47.8%
2.09
1.75 William Hill
57.1%
-9.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
52.2%
1.92
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+4.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
HNK Gorica v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: too close to call
Our model makes HNK Gorica 39% to win this Croatian HNL fixture, with the draw at 29% and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 32%. The goal projection is 1.24 for HNK Gorica against 1.09 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — a slight edge to HNK Gorica on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 14%
1-0 11%
0-0 10%
0-1 10%
2-1 8%
This season
Season records for HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
HNK Gorica
Metric
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.60
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
0.90
Expected goals (xG)
1.22 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.33 (better)
Shots on target
3.75
12.33 (better)
Total shots
11.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.67
Corners
4.25 (better)
52.0 (better)
Possession %
47.8
460 (better)
Passes
376
—
Tackles
—
10.33 (better)
Fouls
16.00
1.33 (better)
Offsides
2.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.33 (better)
Yellow cards
3.50
—
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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HNK Gorica v 
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb