Henan Jianye won 0 of the last 5LLLDD12th3–4Beijing Guoan won 4 of the last 5WWWWD1st
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Henan Jianye
Beijing Guoan
15
Shots
12
7
Shots on target
7
5
Corners
4
12
Fouls
24
3
Yellow cards
3
—
Red cards
—
1
Offsides
2
341
Passes
493
41%
Possession %
59%
—
xG
—
29%
25%
46%
1 · Henan JianyeXBeijing Guoan · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Beijing Guoan 46%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.68
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Henan Jianye
28.9%
3.46
3.25 Dafabet
30.8%
-1.9
Match result
Draw
25.0%
3.99
3.90 Betfair
25.6%
-0.6
Match result
Beijing Guoan
46.1%
2.17
2.30 Bet365
43.5%
+2.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.25
1.16 Betano
86.2%
-6.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.8%
5.05
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
+3.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.0%
1.75
1.53 Betfair
65.4%
-8.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.0%
2.33
2.63 BetVictor
38.0%
+5.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.6%
2.89
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-8.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.4%
1.53
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+5.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.5%
1.68
1.47 Betfair
68.0%
-8.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.5%
2.47
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
+3.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Beijing Guoan favoured against Henan Jianye
Our model makes Henan Jianye 29% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Beijing Guoan at 46%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Henan Jianye against 1.68 for Beijing Guoan — a clear edge to Beijing Guoan on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Henan Jianye
Metric
Beijing Guoan
0.80
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
1.00
Goals conceded
0.40 (better)
1.55 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.20
—
Big chances *
—
4.20 (better)
Shots on target
3.75
15.80 (better)
Total shots
9.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.80 (better)
Corners
3.50
62.2 (better)
Possession %
47.3
489 (better)
Passes
477
—
Tackles
—
14.00
Fouls
12.50 (better)
1.40 (better)
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
2.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Henan Jianye v 
Beijing Guoan