Helmond Sport won 0 of the last 1L3–4Willem II won 0 of the last 5DLLLL18th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Helmond Sport
Willem II
18
Shots
13
5
Shots on target
4
2
Corners
1
8
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
4
Offsides
1
419
Passes
577
42%
Possession %
58%
—
xG
—
51%
20%
29%
1 · Helmond SportXWillem II · 2
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
59%
Both score
76%
Model pick
Helmond Sport 51%
Likely score
2-1 8%
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.78
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Helmond Sport
51.0%
1.96
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
+22.5
Match result
Draw
20.2%
4.95
3.85 Dafabet
26.0%
-5.8
Match result
Willem II
28.7%
3.48
2.06 Dafabet
48.5%
-19.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
92.2%
1.08
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
+6.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
7.8%
12.82
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-10.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
78.3%
1.28
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
+12.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
21.7%
4.61
2.60 Bet365
38.5%
-16.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
59.5%
1.68
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
+16.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
40.5%
2.47
1.62 Betano
61.7%
-21.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
75.7%
1.32
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+9.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
24.3%
4.11
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-13.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Helmond Sport favoured against Willem II
Our model makes Helmond Sport 51% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 20% and Willem II at 29%. The goal projection is 2.37 for Helmond Sport against 1.78 for Willem II — a substantial edge to Helmond Sport on expected output. A combined 4.15 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 78% and both teams to score at 76%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Helmond Sport
Metric
Willem II
0.80
Goals scored
1.00 (better)
2.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.60
1.19 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.15
—
Big chances *
—
4.40 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
11.80 (better)
Total shots
11.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.00
Corners
3.20 (better)
49.4 (better)
Possession %
40.6
424 (better)
Passes
372
—
Tackles
—
15.40
Fouls
9.00 (better)
2.00 (better)
Offsides
2.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.80
Yellow cards
1.60 (better)
0.25
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Helmond Sport v 
Willem II