Hellas Verona v Pisa

5th1–18th

16:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Hellas Verona		Pisa
11	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	8
9	Fouls	7
0	Yellow cards	3
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
443	Passes	604
42%	Possession %	58%
0.69	xG	1.55

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Hellas Verona 49%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.80 – 1.29

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.1%	2.56	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-6.4
Match result	Hellas Verona	48.8%	2.05	2.32 Betano	43.1%	+5.7
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.13	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-4.4
Match result	Pisa	27.0%	3.70	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-4.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.8%	1.22	1.28 Betano	78.1%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.2%	5.50	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-6.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.5%	1.68	1.87 Betano	53.5%	+6.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.5%	2.47	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-8.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.1%	2.69	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+4.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.9%	1.59	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-8.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.9%	1.64	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	+1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hellas Verona favoured against Pisa

Our model makes Hellas Verona 49% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 24% and Pisa at 27%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Hellas Verona against 1.29 for Pisa — a substantial edge to Hellas Verona on expected output. A combined 3.08 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Hellas Verona and Pisa
Hellas Verona		Pisa
11	Played	11
4-4-3	W-D-L	4-4-3
1.45	Pts / game	1.45
1.73	Goals for / game	1.82
1.18	Goals against / game	1.55
64%	Over 2.5	73%
64%	BTTS	64%
36%	Clean sheets	18%
9%	Failed to score	18%
3-2-1	Home record	2-2-2
1-2-2	Away record	2-2-1
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hellas Verona · Pisa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	15.7
4.9	Shots on target	5.3
5.7	Corners	7.0
1.71	Cards	2.29
14.0	Fouls	9.6
49	Possession %	53
1.43	xG	2.00
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	12.4
3.6	Shots on target	3.4
4.7	Corners	5.1
1.43	Cards	1.71
8.4	Fouls	11.6
51	Possession %	47
1.40	xG	1.11
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hellas Verona	Metric	Pisa
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
2.00	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.61	Expected goals (xG)	2.44 (better)
	Big chances
5.50 (better)	Shots on target	4.75
16.50 (better)	Total shots	14.25
	Touches in opp. box
7.25 (better)	Corners	6.00
52.5 (better)	Possession %	48.0
451 (better)	Passes	429
	Tackles
14.25	Fouls	10.00 (better)
1.00	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	2.50
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Hellas Verona wins: 0
Draws: 3
Pisa wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Hellas Verona v Pisa1–12026-10-25
Hellas Verona v Pisa0–02026-02-06
Pisa v Hellas Verona0–02025-10-18

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5