Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5DWWDD5th3–0Carrarese won 2 of the last 5LLWLW17th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Hellas Verona
Carrarese
12
Shots
16
5
Shots on target
5
5
Corners
9
13
Fouls
7
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
409
Passes
556
42%
Possession %
58%
1.22
xG
0.98
39%
29%
33%
1 · Hellas VeronaXCarrarese · 2
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
23%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Hellas Verona 39%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.17
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Hellas Verona
38.6%
2.59
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-22.0
Match result
Draw
28.5%
3.50
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+4.7
Match result
Carrarese
32.9%
3.04
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+14.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.0%
1.41
1.27 Betano
78.7%
-7.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
29.0%
3.44
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
+5.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
44.4%
2.25
1.82 Betano
54.9%
-10.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
55.6%
1.80
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+7.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
23.3%
4.30
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
-10.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
76.7%
1.30
1.42 Betano
70.4%
+6.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.5%
1.98
1.80 Betano
55.6%
-5.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.5%
2.02
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+1.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hellas Verona v Carrarese: too close to call
Our model makes Hellas Verona 39% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 29% and Carrarese at 33%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Hellas Verona against 1.17 for Carrarese — a slight edge to Hellas Verona on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hellas Verona
Metric
Carrarese
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
2.00
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.53 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.10
—
Big chances *
—
5.50 (better)
Shots on target
3.60
16.50 (better)
Total shots
10.40
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00 (better)
Corners
4.00
52.5 (better)
Possession %
40.6
452 (better)
Passes
384
—
Tackles
—
14.50
Fouls
13.60 (better)
0.67 (better)
Offsides
1.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.00
Yellow cards
2.20 (better)
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Hellas Verona v 
Carrarese