Predicted Edge

Harrogate Town v Bury

3–1Bury won 3 of the last 5

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Harrogate Town Bury
22Shots6
7Shots on target5
7Corners7
—Fouls—
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
57%Possession %43%
—xG—
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
50%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Bury 70%
Likely score
1-2 9%
Expected goals
1.07 – 2.58

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultHarrogate Town13.2%7.591.85 Betano54.1%-40.9
Match resultDraw17.2%5.814.50 Dafabet22.2%-5.0
Match resultBury69.6%1.444.75 Bet36521.1%+48.6
Total goalsOver 1.588.3%1.131.20 BetVictor83.3%+4.9
Total goalsUnder 1.511.7%8.534.40 BetVictor22.7%-11.0
Total goalsOver 2.570.6%1.421.70 Bet36558.8%+11.8
Total goalsUnder 2.529.4%3.402.35 Bet36542.6%-13.2
Total goalsOver 3.549.5%2.022.63 BetVictor38.0%+11.5
Total goalsUnder 3.550.5%1.981.47 Betano68.0%-17.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes61.0%1.641.65 William Hill60.6%+0.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No39.0%2.562.25 William Hill44.4%-5.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bury favoured against Harrogate Town

Our model makes Harrogate Town 13% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 17% and Bury at 70%. The goal projection is 1.07 for Harrogate Town against 2.58 for Bury — a commanding edge to Bury on expected output. A combined 3.65 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bury is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 30% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-2 9%
0-2 9%
1-3 8%
1-1 8%
0-3 7%

This season

Season records for Harrogate Town and Bury
Harrogate Town Bury
—Played5
—W-D-L3-1-1
—Pts / game2.00
—Goals for / game3.40
—Goals against / game1.20
—Over 2.580%
—BTTS80%
—Clean sheets20%
—Failed to score0%
—Home record3-1-0
—Away record0-0-1
—StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Harrogate Town · Bury

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0Shots6.0
6.0Shots on target5.0
7.5Corners7.0
2.00Cards0.00
—Fouls—
45Possession %43
—xG—
3 matchessample2 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.5Shots22.0
6.0Shots on target7.0
8.0Corners7.0
1.50Cards2.00
—Fouls—
55Possession %57
—xG—
3 matchessample2 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Harrogate TownMetricBury
2.00 (better)Goals scored1.50
0.40 (better)Goals conceded1.25
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
3.00Shots on target5.00 (better)
12.00 (better)Total shots9.00
Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)Corners5.00
55.0 (better)Possession %45.0
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
0.00Offsides0.00
Throw-ins
3.00Yellow cards3.00
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Harrogate Town wins
1
Draws
1
Bury wins
0
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
50%
Both score
100%