Predicted Edge

Harborough Town v St Albans City

Harborough Town won 3 of the last 43–2St Albans City won 2 of the last 4
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Harborough Town 37%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.27

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultHarborough Town37.2%2.692.05 BetVictor48.8%-11.5
Match resultDraw27.9%3.583.90 Betfair25.6%+2.3
Match resultSt Albans City34.8%2.873.65 Betano27.4%+7.4
Total goalsOver 1.574.0%1.351.15 Betano87.0%-13.0
Total goalsUnder 1.526.1%3.845.40 BetVictor18.5%+7.5
Total goalsOver 2.548.1%2.081.50 Bet36566.7%-18.6
Total goalsUnder 2.551.9%1.932.60 BetVictor38.5%+13.5
Total goalsOver 3.526.3%3.802.20 BetVictor45.5%-19.1
Total goalsUnder 3.573.7%1.361.62 BetVictor61.7%+11.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes53.6%1.871.47 Betano68.0%-14.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No46.4%2.152.70 BetVictor37.0%+9.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Harborough Town v St Albans City: too close to call

Our model makes Harborough Town 37% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 28% and St Albans City at 35%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Harborough Town against 1.27 for St Albans City — almost nothing to Harborough Town on expected output. A combined 2.60 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 9%
0-1 9%
2-1 8%
0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Harborough Town and St Albans City
Harborough Town St Albans City
4Played4
3-0-1W-D-L2-1-1
2.25Pts / game1.75
2.00Goals for / game1.75
2.00Goals against / game0.75
75%Over 2.550%
75%BTTS25%
25%Clean sheets75%
0%Failed to score25%
3-0-0Home record0-1-0
0-0-1Away record2-0-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Harborough Town · St Albans City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0Shots—
7.5Shots on target—
7.5Corners—
2.00Cards—
7.0Fouls—
55Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample—

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.5Shots—
8.0Shots on target—
5.5Corners—
1.50Cards—
7.0Fouls—
45Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample—

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Harborough TownMetricSt Albans City
0.20Goals scored3.20 (better)
1.00Goals conceded0.80 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Harborough Town wins
1
Draws
0
St Albans City wins
0
Goals / game
5.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%