Hannover 96 won 1 of the last 5DWLDL11th0–21. FC Kaiserslautern won 3 of the last 5WLWWD3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Hannover 96
1. FC Kaiserslautern
24
Shots
5
8
Shots on target
3
15
Corners
3
8
Fouls
6
3
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
383
Passes
373
52%
Possession %
48%
1.54
xG
0.54
32%
27%
41%
1 · Hannover 96X1. FC Kaiserslautern · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
56%
Model pick
1. FC Kaiserslautern 41%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.47
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Hannover 96
31.8%
3.14
2.30 Bet365
43.5%
-11.7
Match result
Draw
26.7%
3.75
3.90 Bet365
25.6%
+1.1
Match result
1. FC Kaiserslautern
41.5%
2.41
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+8.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.3%
1.31
1.20 Betano
83.3%
-7.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.7%
4.22
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+5.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.4%
1.95
1.62 Betano
61.7%
-10.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.6%
2.06
2.40 Betfair
41.7%
+7.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.3%
3.42
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-10.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
70.7%
1.41
1.57 Betano
63.7%
+7.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.8%
1.79
1.52 Betano
65.8%
-10.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.2%
2.26
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
+6.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
1. FC Kaiserslautern favoured against Hannover 96
Our model makes Hannover 96 32% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 27% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 41%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Hannover 96 against 1.47 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern — a slight edge to 1. FC Kaiserslautern on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
0-1 9%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
1-0 8%
This season
Season records for Hannover 96 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hannover 96
Metric
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
1.40
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.33
Expected goals (xG)
1.66 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.25
Shots on target
5.50 (better)
11.75
Total shots
17.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.50
Corners
6.00 (better)
45.8
Possession %
49.8 (better)
428 (better)
Passes
403
—
Tackles
—
12.75
Fouls
8.75 (better)
3.25
Offsides
1.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.33 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Hannover 96 v 
1. FC Kaiserslautern