Predicted Edge

Hammarby FF v Sirius

Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 51st2–0Sirius won 1 of the last 52nd

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Hammarby FF Sirius
13Shots15
4Shots on target5
10Corners8
11Fouls13
1Yellow cards3
1Red cards0
1Offsides4
556Passes318
62%Possession %38%
1.63xG2.15
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Hammarby FF 47%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.40

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 4 of 5

Hammarby FF -0.75

1.65Bet365 · fair 1.53 · qualifies at 1.58+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Hammarby FF -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Hammarby FF must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 81%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.53. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 7.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Hammarby FF 1.82, Sirius 1.40.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultHammarby FF47.1%2.121.53 Bet36565.4%-18.3
Match resultDraw23.8%4.194.80 Dafabet20.8%+3.0
Match resultSirius29.1%3.446.50 Bet36515.4%+13.7
Total goalsOver 1.583.6%1.201.18 Betano84.7%-1.2
Total goalsUnder 1.516.4%6.095.50 Bet36518.2%-1.8
Total goalsOver 2.562.3%1.601.55 Betano64.5%-2.2
Total goalsUnder 2.537.7%2.652.60 Bet36538.5%-0.8
Total goalsOver 3.540.1%2.502.38 Betfair42.0%-1.9
Total goalsUnder 3.559.9%1.671.67 Bet36559.9%+0.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes63.5%1.571.70 Bet36558.8%+4.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No36.5%2.742.30 Betfair43.5%-7.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hammarby FF favoured against Sirius

Our model makes Hammarby FF 47% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 24% and Sirius at 29%. The goal projection is 1.82 for Hammarby FF against 1.40 for Sirius — a clear edge to Hammarby FF on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
1-0 7%
2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Hammarby FF and Sirius
Hammarby FF Sirius
28Played28
18-4-6W-D-L18-4-6
2.07Pts / game2.07
2.14Goals for / game2.07
0.82Goals against / game1.25
50%Over 2.564%
46%BTTS54%
43%Clean sheets32%
11%Failed to score14%
11-1-2Home record8-3-3
7-3-4Away record10-1-3
W5StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hammarby FF · Sirius

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.0Shots15.5
6.0Shots on target4.2
7.0Corners7.0
1.86Cards1.33
11.9Fouls10.2
62Possession %52
1.47xG1.96
7 matchessample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.6Shots11.7
2.9Shots on target3.0
3.1Corners5.3
2.29Cards1.67
12.7Fouls11.7
38Possession %48
0.99xG1.19
7 matchessample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hammarby FFMetricSirius
1.20Goals scored1.50 (better)
0.40 (better)Goals conceded1.00
1.69 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.23
Big chances
7.75 (better)Shots on target3.67
18.25 (better)Total shots9.33
Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)Corners6.00
64.0 (better)Possession %47.7
650 (better)Passes459
Tackles
12.75Fouls9.00 (better)
1.00 (better)Offsides1.33
Throw-ins
1.50Yellow cards1.33 (better)
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Hammarby FF wins
1
Draws
0
Sirius wins
2
Goals / game
2.67
Over 2.5
33%
Both score
33%
Allsvenskan table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Hammarby FF281846+3758Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2Sirius281846+2358Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3Djurgardens IF281648+2952Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4BK Hacken2813105+1749BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5IF Elfsborg2812106+1146IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6Vasteras SK FK281369+245Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7Malmo FF2812511+641Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8AIK Stockholm281189-341AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9Gais2811710+840Gais won 3 of the last 5
10IFK Goteborg281099-1039IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11IF Brommapojkarna289811-535IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12Mjallby AIF2861012-1328Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13Kalmar FF287516-1826Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14Degerfors IF285518-2520Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15Orgryte IS284816-2720Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16Halmstad285518-3220Halmstad won 2 of the last 5