Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5WWWWW1st4–1IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5LWDDD5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Hammarby FF
IF Elfsborg
17
Shots
8
6
Shots on target
2
4
Corners
2
10
Fouls
8
0
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
719
Passes
414
63%
Possession %
37%
1.42
xG
1.30
51%
26%
22%
1 · Hammarby FFXIF Elfsborg · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
25%
Both score
50%
Model pick
Hammarby FF 51%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.97
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Hammarby FF
51.1%
1.96
1.42 Bet365
70.4%
-19.3
Match result
Draw
26.4%
3.79
5.40 Dafabet
18.5%
+7.9
Match result
IF Elfsborg
22.5%
4.45
8.50 Bet365
11.8%
+10.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
72.8%
1.37
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
-12.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
27.2%
3.68
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+9.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
46.8%
2.13
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-18.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
53.2%
1.88
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+13.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.3%
3.96
2.47 Betano
40.5%
-15.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.34
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+13.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.8%
2.01
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-5.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
50.2%
1.99
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
+2.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Hammarby FF favoured against IF Elfsborg
Our model makes Hammarby FF 51% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 26% and IF Elfsborg at 22%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Hammarby FF against 0.97 for IF Elfsborg — a substantial edge to Hammarby FF on expected output. A combined 2.55 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hammarby FF
Metric
IF Elfsborg
1.20
Goals scored
1.60 (better)
0.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.00
1.40
Expected goals (xG)
2.13 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.75
Shots on target
5.00 (better)
17.75 (better)
Total shots
15.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
8.50
Corners
8.50
66.8 (better)
Possession %
50.3
658 (better)
Passes
501
—
Tackles
—
11.25
Fouls
9.00 (better)
1.25 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Hammarby FF v 
IF Elfsborg