Ham-Kam v Rosenborg

11th0–33rd

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ham-Kam		Rosenborg
12	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	7
4	Corners	7
19	Fouls	16
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
270	Passes	549
34%	Possession %	66%
0.66	xG	1.77

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Rosenborg 50%
Likely score: 1-2 9%
Expected goals: 1.57 – 2.11

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Ham-Kam	28.5%	3.51	5.40 Dafabet	18.5%	+10.0
Match result	Draw	21.8%	4.58	4.70 Dafabet	21.3%	+0.5
Match result	Rosenborg	49.7%	2.01	1.63 Dafabet	61.3%	-11.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.6%	1.13	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+3.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.4%	8.75	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.0%	1.41	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+7.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.0%	3.45	2.70 Bet365	37.0%	-8.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	50.1%	2.00	2.37 Betano	42.2%	+7.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	49.9%	2.00	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-10.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.0%	1.43	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+6.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.0%	3.33	2.40 BetVictor	41.7%	-11.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Rosenborg favoured against Ham-Kam

Our model makes Ham-Kam 28% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 22% and Rosenborg at 50%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Ham-Kam against 2.11 for Rosenborg — a substantial edge to Rosenborg on expected output. A combined 3.68 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 9%; 1-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 2-1 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Ham-Kam and Rosenborg
Ham-Kam		Rosenborg
26	Played	26
8-6-12	W-D-L	14-4-8
1.15	Pts / game	1.77
1.46	Goals for / game	2.04
2.04	Goals against / game	1.23
77%	Over 2.5	65%
58%	BTTS	42%
19%	Clean sheets	38%
23%	Failed to score	23%
6-2-5	Home record	8-3-2
2-4-7	Away record	6-1-6
W1	Streak	W4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ham-Kam · Rosenborg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.2	Shots	19.4
3.3	Shots on target	6.4
4.0	Corners	6.4
1.50	Cards	2.65
11.5	Fouls	13.6
44	Possession %	59
1.72	xG	2.17
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.5	Shots	11.6
5.8	Shots on target	3.6
5.3	Corners	3.8
1.37	Cards	2.05
10.3	Fouls	14.8
56	Possession %	41
1.66	xG	0.83
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ham-Kam	Metric	Rosenborg
1.80	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.20	Expected goals (xG)	2.63 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	9.33 (better)
9.25	Total shots	19.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.67	Corners	5.67 (better)
40.0	Possession %	56.0 (better)
310	Passes	491 (better)
	Tackles
7.50 (better)	Fouls	17.00
3.50	Offsides	0.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.33
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ham-Kam wins: 1
Draws: 0
Rosenborg wins: 3
Goals / game: 3.25
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 0%

Ham-Kam v Rosenborg0–32026-10-24
Rosenborg v Ham-Kam4–02026-09-05
Ham-Kam v Rosenborg4–02025-09-28
Rosenborg v Ham-Kam2–02025-07-13

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5