Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt

11th0–22nd

12:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ham-Kam		Bodo/Glimt
11	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	3
1	Corners	5
8	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
3	Offsides	2
394	Passes	531
43%	Possession %	57%
0.58	xG	2.08

Over 1.5: 91%
Over 2.5: 75%
Over 3.5: 55%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Bodo/Glimt 68%
Likely score: 1-2 9%
Expected goals: 1.22 – 2.70

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Ham-Kam	14.6%	6.86	12.00 Betfair	8.3%	+6.2
Match result	Draw	17.0%	5.89	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	+2.7
Match result	Bodo/Glimt	68.4%	1.46	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-11.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.5%	1.10	1.09 Betano	91.7%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	9.5%	10.54	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	-3.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	74.9%	1.33	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-0.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	25.1%	3.98	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	54.9%	1.82	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	+0.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	45.1%	2.22	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.9%	1.52	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+8.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.1%	2.94	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-9.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bodo/Glimt favoured against Ham-Kam

Our model makes Ham-Kam 15% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 17% and Bodo/Glimt at 68%. The goal projection is 1.22 for Ham-Kam against 2.70 for Bodo/Glimt — a commanding edge to Bodo/Glimt on expected output. A combined 3.91 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Bodo/Glimt is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 9%; 1-3 8%; 0-2 7%; 1-1 7%; 0-3 7%

This season

Season records for Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt
Ham-Kam		Bodo/Glimt
26	Played	26
8-6-12	W-D-L	20-2-4
1.15	Pts / game	2.38
1.46	Goals for / game	2.42
2.04	Goals against / game	0.88
77%	Over 2.5	69%
58%	BTTS	42%
19%	Clean sheets	46%
23%	Failed to score	12%
6-2-5	Home record	11-0-2
2-4-7	Away record	9-2-2
W1	Streak	W2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ham-Kam · Bodo/Glimt

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.2	Shots	17.7
3.3	Shots on target	5.3
4.0	Corners	5.8
1.50	Cards	0.83
11.5	Fouls	10.8
44	Possession %	59
1.72	xG	2.26
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.5	Shots	10.7
5.8	Shots on target	3.3
5.3	Corners	2.3
1.37	Cards	2.20
10.3	Fouls	11.5
56	Possession %	41
1.66	xG	1.08
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ham-Kam	Metric	Bodo/Glimt
1.40	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.80	Goals conceded	2.40 (better)
0.92	Expected goals (xG)	2.36 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	5.25 (better)
9.25	Total shots	16.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.75	Corners	6.00 (better)
43.5	Possession %	55.0 (better)
393	Passes	575 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	9.50 (better)
3.75	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	0.75 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ham-Kam wins: 0
Draws: 0
Bodo/Glimt wins: 3
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt0–22026-10-17
Bodo/Glimt v Ham-Kam3–02026-07-22
Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt1–32025-08-03

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5