Halmstad v Malmo FF

16th0–37th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Halmstad		Malmo FF
18	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	5
17	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	5
427	Passes	578
43%	Possession %	57%
0.79	xG	1.13

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Malmo FF 54%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 0.91 – 1.64

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Halmstad	20.3%	4.92	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+0.3
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.88	4.20 Bet365	23.8%	+1.9
Match result	Malmo FF	53.9%	1.85	1.71 Dafabet	58.5%	-4.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.0%	1.37	1.20 Betfair	83.3%	-10.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.0%	3.70	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+8.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.1%	2.13	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-14.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.9%	1.89	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+13.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.5%	3.93	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-14.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.5%	1.34	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.9%	2.04	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-12.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.1%	1.96	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+9.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Malmo FF favoured against Halmstad

Our model makes Halmstad 20% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 26% and Malmo FF at 54%. The goal projection is 0.91 for Halmstad against 1.64 for Malmo FF — a substantial edge to Malmo FF on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 12%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Halmstad and Malmo FF
Halmstad		Malmo FF
28	Played	28
5-5-18	W-D-L	12-5-11
0.71	Pts / game	1.46
0.71	Goals for / game	1.50
1.86	Goals against / game	1.29
43%	Over 2.5	57%
46%	BTTS	50%
7%	Clean sheets	39%
46%	Failed to score	21%
4-2-8	Home record	5-1-8
1-3-10	Away record	7-4-3
W1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Halmstad · Malmo FF

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	13.3
4.1	Shots on target	4.7
4.3	Corners	5.0
1.00	Cards	2.50
11.6	Fouls	13.7
40	Possession %	57
0.56	xG	1.08
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	17.2
4.9	Shots on target	4.2
7.0	Corners	5.7
0.71	Cards	2.33
7.7	Fouls	15.3
60	Possession %	43
1.99	xG	1.40
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Halmstad	Metric	Malmo FF
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
0.99	Expected goals (xG)	2.26 (better)
	Big chances
3.75	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
10.25	Total shots	21.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	7.75 (better)
39.5	Possession %	58.3 (better)
414	Passes	533 (better)
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	16.00
1.50 (better)	Offsides	1.75
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Halmstad wins: 0
Draws: 0
Malmo FF wins: 3
Goals / game: 4.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 33%

Halmstad v Malmo FF0–32026-10-28
Malmo FF v Halmstad5–22026-05-30
Halmstad v Malmo FF0–42025-08-16

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5