Halmstad v Hammarby FF

16th0–11st

14:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Halmstad		Hammarby FF
5	Shots	23
0	Shots on target	6
3	Corners	11
12	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	2
319	Passes	783
28%	Possession %	72%
0.33	xG	1.61

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Hammarby FF 65%
Likely score: 0-2 13%
Expected goals: 0.76 – 1.96

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.2%	2.17	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.8%	1.86	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	+2.6
Match result	Halmstad	13.0%	7.72	11.00 Betfair	9.1%	+3.9
Match result	Draw	21.9%	4.58	6.60 Dafabet	15.2%	+6.7
Match result	Hammarby FF	65.2%	1.53	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-14.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.0%	1.31	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-12.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.0%	4.17	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+8.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.1%	1.96	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-18.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.9%	2.04	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+14.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.0%	3.45	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-20.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.0%	1.41	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+14.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hammarby FF favoured against Halmstad

Our model makes Halmstad 13% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 22% and Hammarby FF at 65%. The goal projection is 0.76 for Halmstad against 1.96 for Hammarby FF — a commanding edge to Hammarby FF on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Hammarby FF is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 13%; 0-1 12%; 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-3 8%

This season

Season records for Halmstad and Hammarby FF
Halmstad		Hammarby FF
28	Played	28
5-5-18	W-D-L	18-4-6
0.71	Pts / game	2.07
0.71	Goals for / game	2.14
1.86	Goals against / game	0.82
43%	Over 2.5	50%
46%	BTTS	46%
7%	Clean sheets	43%
46%	Failed to score	11%
4-2-8	Home record	11-1-2
1-3-10	Away record	7-3-4
W1	Streak	W5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Halmstad · Hammarby FF

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	18.0
4.1	Shots on target	6.0
4.3	Corners	7.0
1.00	Cards	1.86
11.6	Fouls	11.9
40	Possession %	62
0.56	xG	1.47
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	8.6
4.9	Shots on target	2.9
7.0	Corners	3.1
0.71	Cards	2.29
7.7	Fouls	12.7
60	Possession %	38
1.99	xG	0.99
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Halmstad	Metric	Hammarby FF
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.12	Expected goals (xG)	4.54 (better)
	Big chances
5.25	Shots on target	10.25 (better)
13.00	Total shots	22.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00	Corners	6.75 (better)
45.3	Possession %	61.0 (better)
441	Passes	611 (better)
	Tackles
9.75 (better)	Fouls	13.25
0.75 (better)	Offsides	1.00
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Halmstad wins: 1
Draws: 1
Hammarby FF wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Halmstad v Hammarby FF0–12026-10-18
Hammarby FF v Halmstad1–12026-04-22
Halmstad v Hammarby FF1–02025-09-28

Allsvenskan table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Hammarby FF	28	18	4	6	+37	58	Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2	Sirius	28	18	4	6	+23	58	Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3	Djurgardens IF	28	16	4	8	+29	52	Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4	BK Hacken	28	13	10	5	+17	49	BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5	IF Elfsborg	28	12	10	6	+11	46	IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6	Vasteras SK FK	28	13	6	9	+2	45	Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7	Malmo FF	28	12	5	11	+6	41	Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8	AIK Stockholm	28	11	8	9	-3	41	AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9	Gais	28	11	7	10	+8	40	Gais won 3 of the last 5
10	IFK Goteborg	28	10	9	9	-10	39	IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11	IF Brommapojkarna	28	9	8	11	-5	35	IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12	Mjallby AIF	28	6	10	12	-13	28	Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13	Kalmar FF	28	7	5	16	-18	26	Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14	Degerfors IF	28	5	5	18	-25	20	Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15	Orgryte IS	28	4	8	16	-27	20	Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16	Halmstad	28	5	5	18	-32	20	Halmstad won 2 of the last 5