Gyori ETO FC v Ujpest

3rd1–06th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gyori ETO FC		Ujpest
12	Shots	26
5	Shots on target	7
6	Corners	1
19	Fouls	16
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
393	Passes	484
46%	Possession %	54%
1.30	xG	2.72

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Gyori ETO FC 56%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.03 – 1.21

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Gyori ETO FC	55.8%	1.79	2.40 Bet365	41.7%	+14.2
Match result	Draw	22.3%	4.49	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-4.0
Match result	Ujpest	21.9%	4.57	2.70 William Hill	37.0%	-15.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.0%	1.19	1.16 Betano	86.2%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.0%	6.24	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.0%	1.59	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.0%	2.70	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.8%	2.45	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-3.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.2%	1.69	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.6%	1.62	1.44 William Hill	69.4%	-7.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.4%	2.60	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	+2.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gyori ETO FC favoured against Ujpest

Our model makes Gyori ETO FC 56% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 22% and Ujpest at 22%. The goal projection is 2.03 for Gyori ETO FC against 1.21 for Ujpest — a substantial edge to Gyori ETO FC on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 7%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Gyori ETO FC and Ujpest
Gyori ETO FC		Ujpest
13	Played	13
6-5-2	W-D-L	5-3-5
1.77	Pts / game	1.38
1.69	Goals for / game	1.62
1.15	Goals against / game	1.54
62%	Over 2.5	62%
62%	BTTS	77%
23%	Clean sheets	0%
15%	Failed to score	23%
4-1-2	Home record	4-1-1
2-4-0	Away record	1-2-4
D2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gyori ETO FC · Ujpest

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	20.0
5.3	Shots on target	6.5
4.0	Corners	6.8
2.20	Cards	2.83
11.2	Fouls	13.8
50	Possession %	55
1.83	xG	2.14
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.0	Shots	13.2
6.0	Shots on target	4.2
5.5	Corners	3.3
3.33	Cards	2.70
19.0	Fouls	16.0
51	Possession %	46
1.73	xG	1.44
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gyori ETO FC	Metric	Ujpest
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.60	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.51 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.34
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	5.33 (better)
14.75 (better)	Total shots	12.33
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	6.00 (better)
49.3	Possession %	50.3 (better)
450 (better)	Passes	402
	Tackles
9.75 (better)	Fouls	14.00
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.67
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gyori ETO FC wins: 3
Draws: 1
Ujpest wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.25
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Gyori ETO FC v Ujpest1–02026-10-24
Gyori ETO FC v Ujpest2–12026-02-28
Ujpest v Gyori ETO FC0–32025-11-08
Gyori ETO FC v Ujpest1–12025-08-03

Hungarian NB I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Puskas Academy	13	8	0	5	+3	24	Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5
2	Ferencvarosi TC	12	6	5	1	+12	23	Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5
3	Gyori ETO FC	13	6	5	2	+7	23	Gyori ETO FC won 2 of the last 5
4	Debreceni VSC	13	6	4	3	+6	22	Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5
5	Paks	13	6	2	5	+2	20	Paks won 3 of the last 5
6	Ujpest	13	5	3	5	+1	18	Ujpest won 1 of the last 5
7	Vasas	13	4	4	5	+1	16	Vasas won 0 of the last 5
8	Budapest Honved	12	3	5	4	-3	14	Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5
9	Zalaegerszegi TE	13	4	1	8	-7	13	Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5
10	MTK Budapest	13	3	4	6	-9	13	MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5
11	Kisvarda FC	13	2	6	5	-3	12	Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Nyiregyhaza	13	3	3	7	-10	12	Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5