Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5DDWLW12th1–1Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5WDLDL10th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Gwangju FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
9
Shots
15
1
Shots on target
8
2
Corners
4
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
44%
Possession %
56%
—
xG
—
27%
26%
48%
1 · Gwangju FCXGimcheon Sangmu FC · 2
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.63
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Gwangju FC
26.7%
3.74
3.15 Betano
31.7%
-5.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
22.7%
4.40
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
-1.1
Match result
Draw
25.7%
3.88
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
-2.0
Match result
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
47.5%
2.10
2.40 Dafabet
41.7%
+5.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
77.3%
1.29
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
-2.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
52.8%
1.90
1.78 Betano
56.2%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
47.2%
2.12
2.05 Bet365
48.8%
-1.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
30.5%
3.28
2.90 BetVictor
34.5%
-4.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
69.5%
1.44
1.42 Betano
70.4%
-0.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.8%
1.79
1.65 Betfair
60.6%
-4.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.2%
2.26
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+2.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC favoured against Gwangju FC
Our model makes Gwangju FC 27% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 48%. The goal projection is 1.16 for Gwangju FC against 1.63 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a clear edge to Gimcheon Sangmu FC on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 9%
0-1 9%
0-2 8%
2-1 7%
This season
Season records for Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gwangju FC
Metric
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.80
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
2.30
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
5.20
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
13.40
Total shots
13.67 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
1.60
Corners
6.67 (better)
42.6
Possession %
52.0 (better)
375
Passes
504 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.80 (better)
Fouls
13.00
1.20
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.33 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Gwangju FC v 
Gimcheon Sangmu FC