GVVV Veenendaal won 2 of the last 2WW3–0Noordwijk won 2 of the last 3LWW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
GVVV Veenendaal
Noordwijk
15
Shots
8
6
Shots on target
1
5
Corners
4
13
Fouls
12
0
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
7
Offsides
3
365
Passes
484
43%
Possession %
57%
—
xG
—
40%
25%
35%
1 · GVVV VeenendaalXNoordwijk · 2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
63%
Model pick
GVVV Veenendaal 40%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.50
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
GVVV Veenendaal
40.0%
2.50
1.62 William Hill
61.7%
-21.7
Match result
Draw
24.8%
4.03
4.40 Dafabet
22.7%
+2.1
Match result
Noordwijk
35.2%
2.84
5.25 Bet365
19.0%
+16.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.22
1.14 Bet365
87.7%
-5.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.7%
5.64
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-0.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
60.2%
1.66
1.51 BetVictor
66.2%
-6.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
39.8%
2.51
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+0.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
37.8%
2.64
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-5.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
62.2%
1.61
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+0.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.8%
1.59
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-0.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.2%
2.69
2.38 William Hill
42.0%
-4.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
GVVV Veenendaal v Noordwijk: too close to call
Our model makes GVVV Veenendaal 40% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 25% and Noordwijk at 35%. The goal projection is 1.61 for GVVV Veenendaal against 1.50 for Noordwijk — a slight edge to GVVV Veenendaal on expected output. A combined 3.12 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
GVVV Veenendaal
Metric
Noordwijk
2.80 (better)
Goals scored
2.20
1.20
Goals conceded
0.40 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
—
—
Possession %
—
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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GVVV Veenendaal v 
Noordwijk