Guingamp v Saint Etienne

11th3–01st

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Guingamp		Saint Etienne
11	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	11
5	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
339	Passes	608
35%	Possession %	65%
1.59	xG	1.41

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Saint Etienne 56%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.92

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Saint Etienne +0.25

1.58Marathonbet · fair 1.42 · qualifies at 1.46+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Saint Etienne +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.58 with Marathonbet — Saint Etienne starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 76% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 66%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.58 implies only 63%, so the price is 11.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Guingamp 1.11, Saint Etienne 1.92.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.5%	1.71	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+3.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.5%	2.41	2.10 Betano	47.6%	-6.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.1%	2.77	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.9%	1.56	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.8%	1.73	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+0.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.2%	2.37	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-2.3
Match result	Guingamp	21.2%	4.72	4.30 Dafabet	23.3%	-2.1
Match result	Draw	23.1%	4.33	3.70 Betano	27.0%	-3.9
Match result	Saint Etienne	55.7%	1.79	1.94 Dafabet	51.5%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.1%	1.23	1.27 Betano	78.7%	+2.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.9%	5.30	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Saint Etienne favoured against Guingamp

Our model makes Guingamp 21% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 23% and Saint Etienne at 56%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Guingamp against 1.92 for Saint Etienne — a substantial edge to Saint Etienne on expected output. A combined 3.04 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-1 9%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Guingamp and Saint Etienne
Guingamp		Saint Etienne
12	Played	12
4-2-6	W-D-L	9-1-2
1.17	Pts / game	2.33
1.33	Goals for / game	2.08
1.50	Goals against / game	0.92
67%	Over 2.5	67%
50%	BTTS	42%
25%	Clean sheets	50%
25%	Failed to score	8%
3-1-2	Home record	6-0-0
1-1-4	Away record	3-1-2
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Guingamp · Saint Etienne

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	13.0
4.4	Shots on target	3.8
3.8	Corners	6.2
2.40	Cards	2.40
12.6	Fouls	14.8
46	Possession %	58
1.32	xG	1.56
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.6	Shots	6.8
4.0	Shots on target	2.4
5.0	Corners	4.2
1.60	Cards	2.20
17.0	Fouls	13.4
54	Possession %	42
1.38	xG	0.64
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Guingamp	Metric	Saint Etienne
1.20	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.40 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.96
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.25 (better)
12.25 (better)	Total shots	10.50
	Touches in opp. box
4.25 (better)	Corners	3.75
47.8	Possession %	52.0 (better)
449	Passes	478 (better)
	Tackles
14.00 (better)	Fouls	18.25
1.67 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.67	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Guingamp wins: 2
Draws: 0
Saint Etienne wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5