Guijuelo won 0 of the last 1L1–3Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5LWLWW7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Guijuelo
Sporting Gijon
—
Shots
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Corners
—
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
—
Possession %
—
—
xG
—
32%
26%
42%
1 · GuijueloXSporting Gijon · 2
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
30%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Sporting Gijon 42%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.50
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Guijuelo
31.7%
3.16
8.80 Dafabet
11.4%
+20.3
Match result
Draw
26.4%
3.78
4.90 Dafabet
20.4%
+6.0
Match result
Sporting Gijon
41.9%
2.39
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-27.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
77.0%
1.30
1.26 BetVictor
79.4%
-2.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.0%
4.36
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-1.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
52.4%
1.91
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-3.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
47.6%
2.10
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-2.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
30.2%
3.31
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
69.8%
1.43
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
56.6%
1.77
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
+10.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
43.4%
2.30
1.80 Betano
55.6%
-12.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sporting Gijon favoured against Guijuelo
Our model makes Guijuelo 32% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Sporting Gijon at 42%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Guijuelo against 1.50 for Sporting Gijon — a slight edge to Sporting Gijon on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Guijuelo
Metric
Sporting Gijon
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.80
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
—
Expected goals (xG)
0.90
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
4.00
—
Total shots
11.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
4.60
—
Possession %
47.8
—
Passes
415
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
12.40
—
Offsides
1.25
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
3.80
—
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Guijuelo v 
Sporting Gijon