Groningen v Emmen

9th0–2

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Groningen		Emmen
12	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	2
5	Corners	1
8	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	1
531	Passes	211
72%	Possession %	28%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 70%
Over 3.5: 49%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Groningen 42%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.90 – 1.74

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Groningen	42.1%	2.38	1.48 Bet365	67.6%	-25.5
Match result	Draw	22.6%	4.42	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+3.4
Match result	Emmen	35.3%	2.83	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+21.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.2%	1.13	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.8%	8.49	7.00 Betfair	14.3%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.4%	1.42	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.6%	3.38	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.3%	2.03	2.07 Betano	48.3%	+1.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.7%	1.97	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.5%	1.42	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+6.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.5%	3.39	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	-10.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Groningen favoured against Emmen

Our model makes Groningen 42% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 23% and Emmen at 35%. The goal projection is 1.90 for Groningen against 1.74 for Emmen — a slight edge to Groningen on expected output. A combined 3.64 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Groningen and Emmen
Groningen		Emmen
12	Played	1
4-3-5	W-D-L	1-0-0
1.25	Pts / game	3.00
2.42	Goals for / game	2.00
2.33	Goals against / game	0.00
92%	Over 2.5	0%
92%	BTTS	0%
8%	Clean sheets	100%
0%	Failed to score	0%
2-1-3	Home record	0-0-0
2-2-2	Away record	1-0-0
L2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Groningen · Emmen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	3.0
6.0	Shots on target	2.0
3.7	Corners	1.0
2.23	Cards	2.00
10.8	Fouls	11.0
54	Possession %	28
2.29	xG	—
6 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	12.0
5.5	Shots on target	4.0
5.5	Corners	5.0
1.33	Cards	2.00
12.0	Fouls	8.0
46	Possession %	72
2.58	xG	—
6 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Groningen	Metric	Emmen
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.61	Expected goals (xG)	1.97 (better)
	Big chances
5.40	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
14.40 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.20	Corners	6.40 (better)
49.0	Possession %	55.0 (better)
433	Passes	496 (better)
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	11.80
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
0.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Groningen wins: 0
Draws: 0
Emmen wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Groningen v Emmen0–22026-10-29