Grimsby v York

6th5–27th

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Grimsby		York
24	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	4
12	Fouls	7
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
226	Passes	524
31%	Possession %	69%
2.88	xG	0.39

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Grimsby 45%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.26

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Grimsby	44.9%	2.23	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+4.1
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.90	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-0.7
Match result	York	29.4%	3.40	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-5.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.7%	1.27	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-5.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.3%	4.70	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+1.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.9%	1.82	1.65 Bet365	60.6%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.1%	2.21	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+4.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.5%	3.08	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.5%	1.48	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.0%	1.72	1.57 Betfair	63.7%	-5.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.0%	2.38	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+4.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Grimsby favoured against York

Our model makes Grimsby 45% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 26% and York at 29%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Grimsby against 1.26 for York — a clear edge to Grimsby on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Grimsby and York
Grimsby		York
14	Played	14
5-5-4	W-D-L	5-5-4
1.43	Pts / game	1.43
1.71	Goals for / game	1.71
1.29	Goals against / game	1.50
57%	Over 2.5	50%
57%	BTTS	71%
29%	Clean sheets	21%
21%	Failed to score	7%
4-1-2	Home record	5-2-0
1-4-2	Away record	0-3-4
W2	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Grimsby · York

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.6	Shots	12.4
5.3	Shots on target	3.4
5.6	Corners	4.1
2.14	Cards	2.00
10.6	Fouls	9.6
51	Possession %	58
2.34	xG	1.26
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.6	Shots	14.9
4.6	Shots on target	4.1
6.1	Corners	5.0
2.43	Cards	2.29
13.7	Fouls	13.3
49	Possession %	42
1.66	xG	1.38
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Grimsby	Metric	York
0.60	Goals scored	1.50 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.75 (better)
1.88 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.62
	Big chances
4.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.75
16.60 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
7.20 (better)	Corners	4.75
55.8	Possession %	62.8 (better)
409	Passes	537 (better)
	Tackles
10.60	Fouls	9.00 (better)
1.80	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.33 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Grimsby wins: 1
Draws: 0
York wins: 0
Goals / game: 7.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Grimsby v York5–22026-10-31

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5