Grimsby v Northampton

6th0–221st

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Grimsby		Northampton
13	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	6
3	Corners	7
9	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
384	Passes	356
52%	Possession %	48%
2.84	xG	1.66

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 44%

Model pick: Grimsby 64%
Likely score: 1-0 14%
Expected goals: 1.86 – 0.72

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Grimsby -0.25

1.55Bet365 · fair 1.39 · qualifies at 1.43+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Grimsby -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.55 with Bet365 — Grimsby must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 72% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 72%; we judge it at 72%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.39. The offered 1.55 implies only 65%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Grimsby 1.86, Northampton 0.72.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Grimsby	63.9%	1.56	1.75 William Hill	57.1%	+6.8
Match result	Draw	22.7%	4.40	3.90 Dafabet	25.6%	-2.9
Match result	Northampton	13.3%	7.49	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-6.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.3%	1.36	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.7%	3.75	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.6%	2.10	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-6.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.4%	1.91	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+1.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.9%	3.86	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.1%	1.35	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	+0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	43.9%	2.28	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-11.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	56.1%	1.78	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+7.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Grimsby favoured against Northampton

Our model makes Grimsby 64% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 23% and Northampton at 13%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Grimsby against 0.72 for Northampton — a commanding edge to Grimsby on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Grimsby is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 14%; 2-0 13%; 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 3-0 8%

This season

Season records for Grimsby and Northampton
Grimsby		Northampton
14	Played	13
5-5-4	W-D-L	3-5-5
1.43	Pts / game	1.08
1.71	Goals for / game	0.69
1.29	Goals against / game	0.77
57%	Over 2.5	0%
57%	BTTS	31%
29%	Clean sheets	31%
21%	Failed to score	46%
4-1-2	Home record	2-2-3
1-4-2	Away record	1-3-2
W2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Grimsby · Northampton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.6	Shots	13.0
5.3	Shots on target	4.0
5.6	Corners	6.0
2.14	Cards	1.33
10.6	Fouls	13.0
51	Possession %	46
2.34	xG	1.11
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.6	Shots	10.8
4.6	Shots on target	2.7
6.1	Corners	4.2
2.43	Cards	1.67
13.7	Fouls	10.2
49	Possession %	54
1.66	xG	1.51
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Grimsby	Metric	Northampton
1.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.33
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.67
4.03 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.93
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.67
15.80 (better)	Total shots	11.33
	Touches in opp. box
6.80 (better)	Corners	5.00
52.4 (better)	Possession %	49.7
425 (better)	Passes	361
	Tackles
13.20 (better)	Fouls	14.33
2.60	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Grimsby wins: 0
Draws: 0
Northampton wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Grimsby v Northampton0–22026-10-17

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5