Grenoble v Reims

17th3–24th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Grenoble		Reims
10	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	9
1	Corners	8
16	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
270	Passes	672
28%	Possession %	72%
1.33	xG	1.42

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Reims 56%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 0.92 – 1.73

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Reims +0.25

1.52Bet365 · fair 1.37 · qualifies at 1.41+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Reims +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.52 with Bet365 — Reims starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 78% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 69%; we judge it at 73%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.37. The offered 1.52 implies only 66%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Grenoble 0.92, Reims 1.73.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Grenoble	19.4%	5.15	4.60 Dafabet	21.7%	-2.3
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.03	3.75 Dafabet	26.7%	-1.9
Match result	Reims	55.8%	1.79	1.95 Betano	51.3%	+4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.8%	1.34	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.2%	3.97	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.4%	2.02	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.6%	1.98	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.5%	3.63	3.70 Betano	27.0%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.5%	1.38	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.2%	1.99	1.90 Betano	52.6%	-2.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.8%	2.01	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-0.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Reims favoured against Grenoble

Our model makes Grenoble 19% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Reims at 56%. The goal projection is 0.92 for Grenoble against 1.73 for Reims — a substantial edge to Reims on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 12%; 0-2 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Grenoble and Reims
Grenoble		Reims
12	Played	12
3-2-7	W-D-L	5-6-1
0.92	Pts / game	1.75
1.08	Goals for / game	2.00
1.83	Goals against / game	1.25
58%	Over 2.5	58%
50%	BTTS	75%
25%	Clean sheets	25%
33%	Failed to score	17%
1-2-3	Home record	3-3-0
2-0-4	Away record	2-3-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Grenoble · Reims

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.6	Shots	10.6
4.2	Shots on target	5.4
4.2	Corners	5.0
2.60	Cards	1.80
18.2	Fouls	12.6
41	Possession %	54
1.22	xG	0.97
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	14.0
6.2	Shots on target	4.0
5.6	Corners	5.4
2.60	Cards	1.80
17.8	Fouls	16.4
59	Possession %	46
1.68	xG	1.38
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Grenoble	Metric	Reims
0.40	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
	Expected goals (xG)	0.37
	Big chances
2.25	Shots on target	4.50 (better)
10.75	Total shots	11.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.50	Corners	5.00 (better)
42.0	Possession %	48.0 (better)
375	Passes	422 (better)
	Tackles
16.75	Fouls	12.50 (better)
0.75 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Grenoble wins: 2
Draws: 1
Reims wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Grenoble v Reims3–22026-11-06
Grenoble v Reims0–02026-02-14
Reims v Grenoble2–42025-10-04

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5