Greece v Germany

0–0

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Greece		Germany
5	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	3
8	Fouls	17
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
267	Passes	640
30%	Possession %	70%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Germany 48%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.45

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Greece	23.9%	4.18	4.20 Betano	23.8%	+0.1
Match result	Draw	28.1%	3.56	4.05 Betano	24.7%	+3.4
Match result	Germany	48.0%	2.08	1.85 Betano	54.1%	-6.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.8%	1.43	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-12.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.2%	3.32	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+10.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.0%	2.33	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-17.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.0%	1.75	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+16.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.1%	4.53	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-15.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.9%	1.28	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+12.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.6%	2.10	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-13.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.4%	1.91	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+10.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Germany favoured against Greece

Our model makes Greece 24% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Germany at 48%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Greece against 1.45 for Germany — a substantial edge to Germany on expected output. A combined 2.40 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 10%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Greece and Germany
Greece		Germany
4	Played	4
2-2-0	W-D-L	1-2-1
2.00	Pts / game	1.25
1.25	Goals for / game	0.75
0.75	Goals against / game	0.50
50%	Over 2.5	0%
50%	BTTS	25%
50%	Clean sheets	50%
25%	Failed to score	50%
0-2-0	Home record	1-0-1
2-0-0	Away record	0-2-0
D2	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Greece · Germany

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.8	Shots	19.8
4.0	Shots on target	4.8
4.0	Corners	6.0
2.50	Cards	1.25
8.0	Fouls	13.8
36	Possession %	67
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	9.0
4.5	Shots on target	3.5
5.3	Corners	4.3
1.50	Cards	3.00
11.8	Fouls	10.3
64	Possession %	34
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Greece	Metric	Germany
1.00	Goals scored	1.00
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
	Expected goals (xG)	1.34
	Big chances
3.60	Shots on target	4.60 (better)
13.80	Total shots	14.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	7.00 (better)
48.6	Possession %	63.6 (better)
451	Passes	623 (better)
	Tackles
11.20 (better)	Fouls	12.20
1.40 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Greece wins: 1
Draws: 1
Germany wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.50
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Greece v Germany0–02026-10-04
Germany v Greece0–12026-09-27