Grazer AK v TSV Hartberg

10th0–44th

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Grazer AK		TSV Hartberg
18	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	8
4	Corners	4
15	Fouls	12
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
392	Passes	420
49%	Possession %	51%
1.19	xG	3.20

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: TSV Hartberg 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.60

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Grazer AK -0.75

2.15Bet365 · fair 1.93 · qualifies at 1.99+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Grazer AK -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Bet365 — Grazer AK must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 68%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.93. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Grazer AK 1.47, TSV Hartberg 1.60.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.1%	1.58	1.40 Betfair	71.4%	-8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.0%	1.61	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+4.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.0%	2.63	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-6.4
Match result	Grazer AK	34.5%	2.90	2.70 William Hill	37.0%	-2.5
Match result	Draw	25.0%	4.00	3.65 Betano	27.4%	-2.4
Match result	TSV Hartberg	40.5%	2.47	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+12.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.7%	1.23	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	+4.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.3%	5.45	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-6.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.2%	1.69	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.8%	2.45	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-9.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.9%	2.71	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+7.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Grazer AK v TSV Hartberg: too close to call

Our model makes Grazer AK 34% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 25% and TSV Hartberg at 40%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Grazer AK against 1.60 for TSV Hartberg — a slight edge to TSV Hartberg on expected output. A combined 3.07 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg
Grazer AK		TSV Hartberg
12	Played	12
2-4-6	W-D-L	6-2-4
0.83	Pts / game	1.67
0.75	Goals for / game	1.92
2.42	Goals against / game	1.58
67%	Over 2.5	67%
50%	BTTS	50%
17%	Clean sheets	25%
50%	Failed to score	25%
1-3-1	Home record	4-1-2
1-1-5	Away record	2-1-2
L2	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Grazer AK · TSV Hartberg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.4	Shots	15.5
4.2	Shots on target	5.7
4.6	Corners	5.3
2.00	Cards	1.50
14.0	Fouls	11.5
42	Possession %	50
1.25	xG	1.94
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.4	Shots	12.3
6.0	Shots on target	4.2
6.0	Corners	3.7
1.60	Cards	1.17
9.6	Fouls	10.2
58	Possession %	50
2.09	xG	1.18
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Grazer AK	Metric	TSV Hartberg
2.00	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
0.85	Expected goals (xG)	1.63 (better)
	Big chances
4.25	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
13.75 (better)	Total shots	11.75
	Touches in opp. box
2.50	Corners	3.75 (better)
41.8	Possession %	44.0 (better)
299	Passes	408 (better)
	Tackles
16.00	Fouls	12.50 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	3.75
	Throw-ins
2.25 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Grazer AK wins: 0
Draws: 1
TSV Hartberg wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Austrian Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	+30	33	Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	9	3	0	+24	30	Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5
3	Lask Linz	12	8	1	3	+15	25	Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	+4	20	TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5
5	Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	+5	19	Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	-1	16	Ried won 2 of the last 5
7	WSG Wattens	12	3	4	5	-3	13	WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	-15	11	Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	-9	10	SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	-20	10	Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5
11	Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	-12	8	Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	-18	6	Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5