Granada CF v 
Valladolid
Match statistics
| Granada CF | Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 353 | Passes | 505 |
| 42% | Possession % | 58% |
| 0.75 | xG | 1.25 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Granada CF 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.58 – 1.17
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Granada CF -0.25
Why this price?
Back Granada CF -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.87 with Marathonbet — Granada CF must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.78. The offered 1.87 implies only 53%, so the price is 4.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.42 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Granada CF 1.58, Valladolid 1.17.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.90 with BetVictor — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 30% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 25%; we judge it at 27%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.73. The offered 3.90 implies only 26%, so the price is 4.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.39 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Granada CF 1.58, Valladolid 1.17.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.93 | 2.15 Bet365 | 46.5% | +5.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.0% | 2.08 | 1.88 Betano | 53.2% | -5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.8% | 3.36 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +3.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.05 Betano | 48.8% | -4.2 |
| Match result | Granada CF | 46.3% | 2.16 | 2.28 Dafabet | 43.9% | +2.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.30 Betano | 30.3% | -4.2 |
| Match result | Valladolid | 27.6% | 3.62 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | -1.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.3% | 4.29 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | -5.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.34 Betano | 74.6% | -4.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.83 Betfair | 54.6% | +0.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Granada CF favoured against Valladolid
Our model makes Granada CF 46% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 26% and Valladolid at 28%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Granada CF against 1.17 for Valladolid — a clear edge to Granada CF on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Granada CF | Valladolid | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 13 |
| 7-2-3 | W-D-L | 5-3-5 |
| 1.92 | Pts / game | 1.38 |
| 1.67 | Goals for / game | 1.69 |
| 1.17 | Goals against / game | 1.54 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 62% |
| 50% | BTTS | 62% |
| 42% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 3-1-1 | Home record | 4-0-2 |
| 4-1-2 | Away record | 1-3-3 |
| W5 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Granada CF · Valladolid
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.7 | Shots | 14.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 1.86 | Cards | 3.50 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 14.9 |
| 49 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.42 | xG | 1.97 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 14.6 | Shots | 14.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 3.74 | Cards | 3.63 |
| 15.6 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 52 |
| 0.86 | xG | 1.77 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Granada CF | Metric | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.40 (better) |
| 2.24 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 2.05 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.40 | Shots on target | 5.60 (better) |
| 17.00 (better) | Total shots | 14.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.80 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 52.4 (better) | Possession % | 50.2 |
| 410 (better) | Passes | 396 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.20 (better) | Fouls | 15.80 |
| 1.80 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.20 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.20 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Granada CF wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Valladolid wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Granada CF v Valladolid2–12026-10-23
- Granada CF v Valladolid5–12026-02-14
- Valladolid v Granada CF2–12025-11-03
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Almeria won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Castellón | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | +18 | 27 | Castellón won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Burgos | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | Burgos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 23 | Eibar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 23 | Granada CF won 5 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +8 | 22 | Mallorca won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 | Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Girona | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +10 | 21 | Girona won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 21 | Oviedo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 20 | Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 19 | Cordoba won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Valladolid | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 18 | Valladolid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 18 | Sabadell won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 15 | Tenerife won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Eldense | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 14 | Eldense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 12 | Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 | Leganes won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 | FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -2 | 10 | Cadiz won 1 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Albacete | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 | Albacete won 3 of the last 5 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 5 | AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5 |