Gornik Zabrze v 
Legia Warszawa
Match statistics
| Gornik Zabrze | Legia Warszawa | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 0 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 456 | Passes | 437 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 1.35 | xG | 0.36 |
- Over 1.5
- 71%
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Gornik Zabrze 37%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.27 – 1.20
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Legia Warszawa
Why this price?
Back Legia Warszawa to win at 3.42 with Marathonbet.
Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.10. The offered 3.42 implies only 29%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.07 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.27, Legia Warszawa 1.20.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gornik Zabrze | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.16 Dafabet | 46.3% | -8.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.5% | 3.51 | 3.35 Dafabet | 29.9% | -1.4 |
| Match result | Legia Warszawa | 34.1% | 2.93 | 3.45 Betano | 29.0% | +5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71.2% | 1.40 | 1.37 Betano | 73.0% | -1.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | -0.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 44.7% | 2.24 | 2.15 Bet365 | 46.5% | -1.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | +1.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.5% | 4.25 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -2.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1.87 Betfair | 53.5% | -2.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.2% | 2.03 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | +1.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gornik Zabrze v Legia Warszawa: too close to call
Our model makes Gornik Zabrze 37% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 28% and Legia Warszawa at 34%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Gornik Zabrze against 1.20 for Legia Warszawa — almost nothing to Gornik Zabrze on expected output. A combined 2.46 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-1 10%
- 0-0 9%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Gornik Zabrze | Legia Warszawa | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 9-4-1 | W-D-L | 6-6-2 |
| 2.21 | Pts / game | 1.71 |
| 1.64 | Goals for / game | 1.79 |
| 0.86 | Goals against / game | 1.07 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 43% |
| 71% | BTTS | 71% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 4-2-1 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 5-2-0 | Away record | 3-4-0 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gornik Zabrze · Legia Warszawa
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 21.8 | Shots | 12.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 14.2 | Fouls | 12.7 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2.32 | xG | 1.11 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 8.6 | Shots | 15.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 2.8 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 12.2 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 49 | Possession % | 52 |
| 0.62 | xG | 1.59 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Gornik Zabrze | Metric | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 3.00 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 2.05 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.24 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.25 (better) | Shots on target | 4.33 |
| 17.25 (better) | Total shots | 13.33 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 46.8 (better) | Possession % | 43.0 |
| 413 (better) | Passes | 370 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.25 (better) | Fouls | 13.67 |
| 1.33 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Gornik Zabrze wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Legia Warszawa wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Gornik Zabrze v Legia Warszawa0–02026-10-30
- Legia Warszawa v Gornik Zabrze1–12026-04-11
- Gornik Zabrze v Legia Warszawa3–12025-10-05
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | +21 | 32 | Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 31 | Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | +10 | 24 | Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 | Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 23 | Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | +5 | 21 | GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 | Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 18 | Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 | Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 | Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 | Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 12 | Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -8 | 12 | Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 10 | Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -10 | 8 | Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5 |