Predicted Edge

Gloucester City v Barrow

Gloucester City won 3 of the last 50–2
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
37%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Gloucester City 66%
Likely score
2-0 11%
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.89

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultGloucester City66.4%1.503.90 BetVictor25.6%+40.8
Match resultDraw20.0%5.014.20 Dafabet23.8%-3.8
Match resultBarrow13.6%7.351.85 Dafabet54.1%-40.4
Total goalsOver 1.581.6%1.231.21 Betano82.6%-1.1
Total goalsUnder 1.518.4%5.424.40 BetVictor22.7%-4.3
Total goalsOver 2.559.2%1.691.65 Bet36560.6%-1.4
Total goalsUnder 2.540.8%2.452.20 Bet36545.5%-4.7
Total goalsOver 3.536.9%2.712.63 BetVictor38.0%-1.2
Total goalsUnder 3.563.1%1.581.45 Betano69.0%-5.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes52.7%1.901.62 Betano61.7%-9.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No47.3%2.112.25 BetVictor44.4%+2.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gloucester City favoured against Barrow

Our model makes Gloucester City 66% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 20% and Barrow at 14%. The goal projection is 2.18 for Gloucester City against 0.89 for Barrow — a commanding edge to Gloucester City on expected output. A combined 3.07 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Gloucester City is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 34% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-0 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 10%
1-1 9%
3-0 8%

This season

Season records for Gloucester City and Barrow
Gloucester City Barrow
6Played—
3-2-1W-D-L—
1.83Pts / game—
1.50Goals for / game—
0.67Goals against / game—
33%Over 2.5—
33%BTTS—
50%Clean sheets—
33%Failed to score—
0-1-1Home record—
3-1-0Away record—
L1Streak—

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gloucester City · Barrow

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots10.0
—Shots on target5.0
—Corners7.0
—Cards1.00
—Fouls13.0
—Possession %48
—xG—
—sample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots10.0
—Shots on target3.0
—Corners5.0
—Cards1.00
—Fouls15.0
—Possession %52
—xG—
—sample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (2 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gloucester CityMetricBarrow
1.50Goals scored2.20 (better)
0.50 (better)Goals conceded0.80
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Gloucester City wins
0
Draws
1
Barrow wins
1
Goals / game
1.00
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
0%