GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5LWLLW8th3–2Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5WLDDL13th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
GKS Katowice
Widzew Łódź
9
Shots
13
6
Shots on target
4
3
Corners
5
16
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
273
Passes
542
34%
Possession %
66%
2.69
xG
1.21
51%
25%
24%
1 · GKS KatowiceXWidzew Łódź · 2
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
30%
Both score
54%
Model pick
GKS Katowice 51%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.08
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.9%
2.18
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+6.6
Match result
GKS Katowice
50.7%
1.97
2.25 William Hill
44.4%
+6.3
Match result
Draw
25.4%
3.94
3.75 Dafabet
26.7%
-1.3
Match result
Widzew Łódź
23.9%
4.19
3.35 Dafabet
29.9%
-6.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.6%
1.30
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-7.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.4%
4.28
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+3.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.9%
1.93
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
-10.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.1%
2.08
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+6.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.7%
3.37
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-9.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
70.3%
1.42
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
+4.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.1%
1.85
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-11.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
GKS Katowice favoured against Widzew Łódź
Our model makes GKS Katowice 51% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 25% and Widzew Łódź at 24%. The goal projection is 1.67 for GKS Katowice against 1.08 for Widzew Łódź — a substantial edge to GKS Katowice on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
GKS Katowice
Metric
Widzew Łódź
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.49 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.29
—
Big chances *
—
4.75 (better)
Shots on target
3.25
17.50 (better)
Total shots
14.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.50
Corners
7.50 (better)
52.8 (better)
Possession %
48.3
449 (better)
Passes
369
—
Tackles
—
11.75 (better)
Fouls
16.00
1.50
Offsides
1.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.25 (better)
Yellow cards
2.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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GKS Katowice v 
Widzew Łódź