GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5LWLLW8th0–1Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5LLWWW4th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
GKS Katowice
Pogon Szczecin
19
Shots
14
4
Shots on target
5
6
Corners
3
9
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
4
566
Passes
329
64%
Possession %
36%
1.00
xG
2.09
46%
26%
29%
1 · GKS KatowiceXPogon Szczecin · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
58%
Model pick
GKS Katowice 46%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.26
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
GKS Katowice
45.5%
2.20
2.02 Betano
49.5%
-4.0
Match result
Draw
25.5%
3.92
3.90 Betfair
25.6%
-0.1
Match result
Pogon Szczecin
29.0%
3.45
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.9%
1.27
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-5.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.1%
4.74
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+2.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.1%
1.81
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
-7.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.9%
2.23
2.55 Betano
39.2%
+5.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.7%
3.05
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-9.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.3%
1.49
1.67 Betano
59.9%
+7.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.1%
1.72
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-8.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.9%
2.39
2.70 BetVictor
37.0%
+4.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
GKS Katowice favoured against Pogon Szczecin
Our model makes GKS Katowice 46% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 26% and Pogon Szczecin at 29%. The goal projection is 1.63 for GKS Katowice against 1.26 for Pogon Szczecin — a clear edge to GKS Katowice on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-0 9%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%
This season
Season records for GKS Katowice and Pogon Szczecin
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
GKS Katowice
Metric
Pogon Szczecin
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.80
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
2.57
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
5.00
Shots on target
5.00
18.25 (better)
Total shots
17.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.75 (better)
Corners
4.33
51.5 (better)
Possession %
46.0
435 (better)
Passes
389
—
Tackles
—
12.50 (better)
Fouls
16.33
1.50 (better)
Offsides
3.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
1.33 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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GKS Katowice v 
Pogon Szczecin