Girona won 2 of the last 5LLWWD8th5–1Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5LDLDW16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
21
Shots
3
8
Shots on target
3
7
Corners
2
12
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
1
6
Offsides
0
601
Passes
280
65%
Possession %
35%
3.32
xG
0.73
51%
25%
24%
1 · GironaXCelta de Vigo II · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Girona 51%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.14
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Girona
50.9%
1.97
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-20.5
Match result
Draw
24.8%
4.03
5.40 Betano
18.5%
+6.3
Match result
Celta de Vigo II
24.3%
4.11
9.00 Betano
11.1%
+13.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.6%
1.27
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-6.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.4%
4.68
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+3.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.7%
1.83
1.57 Betano
63.7%
-8.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.3%
2.21
2.62 Betano
38.2%
+7.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.4%
3.09
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-9.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.6%
1.48
1.67 Betano
59.9%
+7.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
56.5%
1.77
1.83 Bet365
54.6%
+1.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
43.5%
2.30
2.00 William Hill
50.0%
-6.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Girona favoured against Celta de Vigo II
Our model makes Girona 51% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 25% and Celta de Vigo II at 24%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Girona against 1.14 for Celta de Vigo II — a substantial edge to Girona on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Girona
Metric
Celta de Vigo II
1.20
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
1.30 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.20
—
Big chances *
—
4.80
Shots on target
5.40 (better)
13.80 (better)
Total shots
13.40
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.80
Corners
4.00 (better)
51.2
Possession %
53.0 (better)
440
Passes
485 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.80
Fouls
9.40 (better)
1.40 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.80
Yellow cards
2.20 (better)
0.20 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Girona v 
Celta de Vigo II