No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Gimnástica Segoviana
46.5%
2.15
3.25 Dafabet
30.8%
+15.7
Match result
Draw
25.2%
3.97
3.75 Betfair
26.7%
-1.5
Match result
Cultural Leonesa
28.4%
3.53
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-17.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.6%
1.26
1.24 BetVictor
80.6%
-1.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.4%
4.91
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
-2.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.2%
1.78
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-2.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.8%
2.28
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
-0.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.8%
2.96
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.2%
1.51
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
-3.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.8%
1.70
1.60 Betfair
62.5%
-3.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.2%
2.43
2.40 BetVictor
41.7%
-0.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gimnástica Segoviana favoured against Cultural Leonesa
Our model makes Gimnástica Segoviana 46% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and Cultural Leonesa at 28%. The goal projection is 1.67 for Gimnástica Segoviana against 1.26 for Cultural Leonesa — a clear edge to Gimnástica Segoviana on expected output. A combined 2.94 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-0 8%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%
This season
Season records for Gimnástica Segoviana and Cultural Leonesa
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gimnástica Segoviana
Metric
Cultural Leonesa
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
2.00
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
—
—
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
—
—
Possession %
—
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
—
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Gimnástica Segoviana v 
Cultural Leonesa