Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5WDLDL10th1–2Daejeon Citizen won 3 of the last 5DWWWD3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Daejeon Citizen
13
Shots
9
5
Shots on target
5
6
Corners
3
—
Fouls
—
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
49%
Possession %
51%
—
xG
—
25%
26%
49%
1 · Gimcheon Sangmu FCXDaejeon Citizen · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Daejeon Citizen 49%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.63
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
25.0%
4.00
3.75 Dafabet
26.7%
-1.7
Match result
Draw
25.8%
3.87
3.70 Betfair
27.0%
-1.2
Match result
Daejeon Citizen
49.2%
2.03
2.05 Bet365
48.8%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.1%
1.31
1.27 Betano
78.7%
-2.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.9%
4.19
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-0.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.2%
1.95
1.85 Bet365
54.1%
-2.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.8%
2.05
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
-1.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.1%
3.44
3.10 BetVictor
32.3%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
70.9%
1.41
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-0.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.1%
1.85
1.73 Betfair
57.8%
-3.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.9%
2.18
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-0.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Daejeon Citizen favoured against Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Our model makes Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Daejeon Citizen at 49%. The goal projection is 1.09 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.63 for Daejeon Citizen — a substantial edge to Daejeon Citizen on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 12%
0-1 10%
1-2 10%
0-2 9%
0-0 7%
This season
Season records for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Daejeon Citizen
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Metric
Daejeon Citizen
1.20
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
1.00
Goals conceded
1.00
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.46
—
Big chances *
—
5.20 (better)
Shots on target
4.20
15.20
Total shots
15.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.60 (better)
Corners
5.40
51.6 (better)
Possession %
50.8
485 (better)
Passes
456
—
Tackles
—
11.40 (better)
Fouls
12.40
1.80
Offsides
1.40 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
1.75
0.20
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Gimcheon Sangmu FC v 
Daejeon Citizen