Gillingham v Port Vale

8th1–119th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gillingham		Port Vale
9	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	3
9	Corners	4
12	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
290	Passes	429
41%	Possession %	59%
1.70	xG	0.88

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Gillingham 41%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.24 – 0.99

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Port Vale +0.25

2.10Bet365 · fair 1.88 · qualifies at 1.94+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Port Vale +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.10 with Bet365 — Port Vale starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 54%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.88. The offered 2.10 implies only 48%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Gillingham 1.24, Port Vale 0.99.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 1.5

3.40Bet365 · fair 3.18 · qualifies at 3.31+ · 0.72u

Why this price?

Back under 1.5 goals at 3.40 with Bet365 — 1 goal or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 31%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.18. The offered 3.40 implies only 29%, so the price is 6.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.72 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Gillingham 1.24, Port Vale 0.99.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.3%	1.23	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	+3.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.4%	2.21	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-8.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.6%	1.83	1.91 William Hill	52.4%	+2.3
Match result	Gillingham	41.3%	2.42	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+11.9
Match result	Draw	29.9%	3.34	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	-0.4
Match result	Port Vale	28.8%	3.47	2.40 William Hill	41.7%	-12.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.0%	1.52	1.38 BetVictor	72.5%	-6.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	34.0%	2.94	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+3.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	38.6%	2.59	2.15 Bet365	46.5%	-7.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	61.4%	1.63	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+2.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.7%	5.35	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-5.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gillingham favoured against Port Vale

Our model makes Gillingham 41% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 30% and Port Vale at 29%. The goal projection is 1.24 for Gillingham against 0.99 for Port Vale — a slight edge to Gillingham on expected output. A combined 2.23 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Gillingham and Port Vale
Gillingham		Port Vale
14	Played	12
5-5-4	W-D-L	4-3-5
1.43	Pts / game	1.25
1.43	Goals for / game	0.83
1.36	Goals against / game	1.17
57%	Over 2.5	17%
57%	BTTS	33%
29%	Clean sheets	33%
29%	Failed to score	42%
2-3-2	Home record	4-2-0
3-2-2	Away record	0-1-5
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gillingham · Port Vale

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.1	Shots	11.6
2.3	Shots on target	4.8
3.3	Corners	4.8
3.00	Cards	1.60
15.4	Fouls	10.0
46	Possession %	49
1.31	xG	1.79
7 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	10.4
5.9	Shots on target	3.6
5.1	Corners	5.8
2.14	Cards	1.60
10.3	Fouls	12.0
54	Possession %	51
1.70	xG	0.92
7 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gillingham	Metric	Port Vale
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.33
1.60	Goals conceded	0.33 (better)
1.49	Expected goals (xG)	3.06 (better)
	Big chances
2.40	Shots on target	4.33 (better)
7.00	Total shots	12.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.40	Corners	5.33 (better)
50.8 (better)	Possession %	50.0
391 (better)	Passes	378
	Tackles
13.60	Fouls	13.33 (better)
1.40 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gillingham wins: 0
Draws: 1
Port Vale wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 100%

Gillingham v Port Vale1–12026-10-20

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5